+2.5 UNITS 19.2% ROI
A winning event which doesn't come that easily for me. I'm a little frustrated that I wasn't disciplined enough to follow my own system. I got most success from time props and parlays. But I'm just happy to come out ahead.
Winning Bets:
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1.5 UNITS
Over 2.5 (-285)Michal Figlak vs Fares Ziam
Robert Whittaker (-220)Marvin Vettori vs Robert Whittaker
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1.5 UNIT
Over 2.5 (-210)Nasrat Haqparast vs John Makdessi
Over 1.5 (-525)Marvin Vettori vs Robert Whittaker
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-275)Charles Jourdain vs Nathaniel Wood
Over 1.5 (-185)Nassourdine Imavov vs Joaquin Buckley
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1.5 UNIT
Over 1.5 (-220)Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa
Over 2.5 (-285)Marvin Vettori vs Robert Whittaker
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1.5 UNIT
Benoit Saint-Denis (-280)Benoit Saint-Denis vs Gabriel Miranda
Nassourdine Imavov (-275)Nassourdine Imavov vs Joaquin Buckley
Losing Bets that were ok bets:
Placed - Single - 1 UNIT
Charles Jourdain (-140)Charles Jourdain vs Nathaniel Wood
Placed - Single - 1 UNIT
Over 1.5 (-110)Benoit Saint-Denis vs Gabriel Miranda
Losing Bets that were bad bets:
If I had been more disciplined I wouldn't have made these bets based on my system. I was too swayed by listening to other people feeling that Makdessi was a good underdog and got overly confident. But based on my system I should not have bet him because of the age difference. Perez and Figlak are both debuting in the UFC which is a red flag. But I thought they looked like they had a decent shot and had good odds so went against the system. If I had been disciplined I would have just avoided these bets.
Placed - Single - 0.5 UNIT
John Makdessi (+180)Nasrat Haqparast vs John Makdessi
Placed - Single - 0.5 UNIT
Ailin Perez (+240)Stephanie Egger vs Ailin Perez
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1.5 UNITS
Michal Figlak (-200) Michal Figlak vs Fares Ziam
Benoit Saint-Denis (-290) Benoit Saint-Denis vs Gabriel Miranda
Placed - Single - .5 UNIT
John Makdessi - By Points (+300) Nasrat Haqparast vs John Makdessi
Updated notes on the fight outcomes, how the system did, and how successful I was implementing the system:
Winning Underdogs
The dogs that won were Kopylov, Wood, Ziam, and Quinonez. The system told me to avoid betting the favorites in 50% of these fights. I stayed away from Taha because I liked the way Quinonez looked. But I did lose betting Jourdain as the favorite. I also red flagged Ziam because I did not like the way he looked in the tape, but that was not a good red flag. Ziam's striking and grappling looked improved in this fight.
Red Flagged Favorites
The only favorite that won even though they were red flagged them was Magomedov. I red flagged Eggers and Haqparast mostly because I wasn't crazy about how they looked when watching their tape. But I was letting my own preferences cloud my judgement. I should not have red flagged them. I have to be more strict and stick to the rules.
Overall
So if I had been strict, the system got 2 favorites wrong and red flagged 1 favorite winner. It would have helped me to avoid betting the favorite in 2 out of 4 of the fights where the favorite lost.
If following the system and avoiding fights where I had a bad feeling about the favorite, I would have bet Gane, Whittaker, Jourdain, Imavov, St-Denis. I would have gotten 4 out of 5 picks correct. 80% correct
If following the system and blindly betting what the system told me to pick, I would have bet Gane, Whittaker, Haqparast, Gomis, Jourdain, Imavov, St-Denis, Taha and Eggers. I would have gotten 7 out of 9 picks correct. 78% correct
Blindly picking all the favorites: 8 out of 12 which would have 66% correct.
What is the conclusion? I guess the system did help a little and if I had followed it more strictly I would have saved myself 3 Units in this event.
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