Betting System

2023 Update:

Ok, I am simplifying things.  

 

METHOD:

1. Watch tape on fighters until you get a decent understanding. Don't bet a fight unless you watch tape. Never rely only on others' opinions or the general consensus. Take what others say with a grain of salt even when you respect them and even when they are very confident.

2. Label each fighter with "red flags" based on only certain disadvantages listed below.

3. Categorize the fight: Volatile, Moderate Favorite, Big Favorite, Pick em, or Close to help decide how worth the risk it is.

4. If you have a read on a prop make notes on it.

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RED FLAGS

• Skill seems a bit overhyped or untested

• Newcomer moving up in competition level

• Dog is established fighter with physical toughness and good skill

• Significant age difference - over 6 year difference

• Favorite looks too skinny versus a physically stronger looking fighter

• Significant size or reach differential

• Pronounced weakness in cardio, strength, durability, volume or fight IQ

• Significant difference in level of opponents

• Red flag a favorite when you have a gut feeling they might lose or seem untrustworthy even if there are no other flags on them.

• Path to victory too narrow

• Has shown poor wrestling and grappling and going against good wrestler even if they have other very good attributes that make you want to favor them

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Rules on deciding which bets to make:​

1. Before betting prune your bets by 30%. Which bets are nagging at you? Just don't bet them.

2. Avoid betting when the odds are really bad and aren't worth the risk.

3. Don't blindly bet favorites. You have to root out the bad ones. Use the red flags to help steer clear of landmines.

4. Never let a certain outcome affect more than 2 units no matter how confident you are.

5. Don't bet OVER when one person can can possibly dominate

6. Don't parlay volatile fights

7. Look for props that you think are reasonably likely to happen with good odds.

8. Volatile fights that can go in many directions may not be worth betting.

9. Close or volatile fights that are likely go to decision might be worth a split decision bet.

10. If there is a  moderate favorite that is closely matched it may be worth betting the underdog.

11. Favorites with a red flag should be avoided. And it might be worth betting the underdog.

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SIGNS YOU SHOULD AVOID A FIGHT

• Both fighters low level or inconsistent

• Too many red flags on both sides

• When you have experience with a fighter and bad feeling, don’t be swayed by others' opinions even when they seem so confident

• When you keep going back and forth and feel unconfident

• If you can't read it, don't push it. Let it go.

• One fighter has a flukey talent

• You have a nagging gut feeling about betting it.

• You have a personal bias about a fighter.

• When there is a big question mark about a certain aspect of the fight​