Sean O' Malley:
I love it. I don't have many favorites where their win or loss could make or break my day or weekend. But Sean is one of them. I have been routing for this guy for years. Through all the ups and downs he shows his fight IQ, skills and strong work ethic. I am so happy for him. It made my day and my week.
Going into this fight I have been so nervous like I am his family or something. I have nothing against Aljo. He seems like a great guy and is talented. But leading up to this fight the media and all the analysts has Aljo hyped up so much in his wrestling and grappling skills that it even had me doubting. But maybe it was overhyped. Aljo squeaked by the fights against Yan who is smaller than O'Malley. And he is someone that O'Malley outstruck. No matter how good Yan is O'Malley outstruck him on the feet. I am so tired of trying to convince people that Sean won that Yan fight, but he did.
My read was wrong though. I thought most likely Sean would stuff the takedowns in the first 2 rounds and when Aljo was less fresh and Sean sees the openings he was going to batter him in the 3-5 rounds. I wasn't sure there'd be a KO. I thought it very possible he'd win a decision with damage. But I listen too much to all the media and gave too much credit to Aljo and not enough to O'Malley. All the media hypes up the wrestling and grappling so much and doesn't give enough credit to the elite striking. Maybe because there aren't many strikers out there that have such eilte striking and footwork. So he finally proves himself to all the haters.
I worried a little that Aljo's funky striking could catch Sean unaware and allow him to get in on a takedown, but I guess that was no problem at all. On top of it we find out he didn't even train grappling in this fight camp because of injury. So he literally relied only on his striking and footwork skills. He is even better than I thought. I'm worried though about his injury and he says he wants to fight in December. I hope it's healed enough for that especially since now everyone knows.
Of course there is already talk of how it was an early stoppage. Not really. Maybe 1 beat, but Aljo wasn't going to recover from that. And there is already talk abuot how Merab and Cejudo would beat him. I don't think so. They are both so short and their striking is good but not elite. They are not as athletic and dynamic as Aljo. Merab is like a repetitive robot. Sean can time a robot.
I think the big challenge for Sean is Cory - who is another of my favorites. Between him and O'Malley, it will be tough but I think Sean will come out ahead. Cory is wily and he has been improving on his wrestling and working on being more well rounded, but I think Sean has more precision and power and athleticism. Cory has been beaten by lesser strikers than Sean.
OTHER NOTES ON UFC 292:
Weili:
Yay! I love her. I was so confident in her that I psyched myself out think this fight was a trap and there was something I was missing. Complete mauling. But you what I did see was that when they stood in the striking Lemos was tagging Weili. And the reach was giving Weili problems on the feet. Lemos was defending well enough to avoid too much damage on the ground but she had very little TD defense and that is what allowed the mauling. Weili wasn't quite able to get the finish on the ground. And doesn't finish in the striking. So something to be careful of betting her ITD in the future.
And in terms her rematching with Rose - one of my other favorites. I think Rose will have to beef up the TD defense and much like what Sean did - use her footwork and her sniper-like striking to an even greater degree than what we've seen in the past. Weili does show that being at a reach disadvantage can give her problems in striking. On the ground Weili just looks so dangerous now though.
Chito:
Back to his old ways. But if they rematch I think at this point Sean would destroy him. Don't think it would finish, but maybe go much like Chito's fight with Sandhagen. Though hopefully Chito will have a better performance.
Ian Garry:
Frustrating and annoying. Is he trying to make people hate him just to get attention? Either he is just trying to get more time on camera or he has terrible fight IQ. He has a huge physicality, power, age and possibly skill advantage of someone coming in short notice. He has him limping on 1 leg after the 1st round and he doesn't finish it. Maybe he is talented, but I can't stand him. I'm ok with some trash talk, but the way he does it is just kind of unlikeable and annoying. Lost the ITD bet on him.
Petrovski:
This fight showed that his striking skill is really lacking to go up to a higher level. Meerschart is the more skilled striker. But Petrovski is just younger and more physical.
The Bets:
The little bit of momentum I had going a couple months ago is totally gone. I 've been on the worst losing streak yet. If not for a small bet on O'Malley it would have been even more awful.
I've been trying to do more prop bets and just not hitting any the last few weeks even though the reads haven't been really bad in general. I think I am listening too much to other people who give me ideas on what might be good prop bets even though they weren't my initial reads. I have to avoid that. It's just putting too much risk. I am losing a lot on the ITD and DNGTD bets. I'm have to rein it in again.
Comentarios