-2.22 Units -18%ROI, My latest push to get better at betting props has not been successful for me. It wasn't a huge loss tonight, but just disappointing that no round or method props are hitting at all. If just one hits it would have been a positive night, but not one. I'm still doing ok with the OVER Unders. Both of my 3 leg OVER under parlays came through at least. And it's just about the only thing that did.
LOTS OF BAD READS:
I had a bad read on the Jamie Pickett fight. I don't know why I thought that would finish. I think Fremd looked more aggressive in previous fights than he did tonight. I don't know why. Neither of them seemed very aggressive. I am used to seeing Pickett like that but not Fremd.
Bad read on Daukus. I'm not sure why I thought he might overpower Rountree. Wrong.
Bad read on Lucindo by decision. I was pretty sure that if she won it would be a striking decision. Viana looks very durable. It never occurred to me that Lucindo would finish by sub.
McGhee I'm not sure why I thought Buys would last longer. For some reason I really felt it would go past 1 round.
Breeden not sure why I thought he could outlast 1 round. He looked durable in his last fight. but I guess it is the level of competition. That was a dumb read.
LISTENING TOO MUCH TO NARRATIVE FROM OTHERS:
Amorim finishing early was the narrative I kept hearing and not necessarily something I concluded on my own.
Buys having a chance to sub early. I don't think I would have thought that on my own. I just kept hearing other people say it and talked myself into it.
NEW BETTING RULES:
BALANCE the numbers. Plan out how many underdog prop sprinkles I do and balance them in betting amount with the safer bets. Or pare down the amount of prop sprinkles so that if the safer bets win it will cover the cost of the sprinkles. So I have to decide what are my more high confidence bets and the winnings from that should cover the riskier bets. I only had about 4 units worth of confident winnings versus 8 units of props or bets that I were riskier.
QUESTION the READ. While paring down which bets you feel good about, ask yourself if this could be a bad read or if you are listening too much to narrative. Is there a solid reason that I have a certain read?
UFC 292:
Next week one of my favorites is fighting. Sean O'Malley for the belt. I can't wait. This will definitely be his toughest challenge yet. On paper it seems Aljo should win. But I really think Sean has a shot. And I think it could be a KO. It could be another back and forth fight like with Yan. But for some reason I am leaning for the fight to finish. I feel like one of them will impose their skillset more dominantly on the other.
Things O'Malley has going for him:
Sean will know what he needs to do and will have been working on it and have a good game plan.
He is a lot taller than Aljo's other opponents. Aljo beat Cory who is also tall, but I honestly think Cory didn't have a good performance that night. Aljo goes to split decision with Cejudo and Yan who are both significantly smaller than him.
Yan almost knocked Aljo out in their first fight. Yan would have won that fight if he hadn't messed up and gotten himself disqualified. Sean hits as hard as Yan and has the height and reach advantage. And Sean outstruck Yan.
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