+ 2.86 UNITS 18% ROI
Cory came through. I love his fighting style, but it is nerve wracking to watch against Song who is a good striker and has power. Other performances I especially liked were Rodrigues and Basharat. So good.
Sandhagen : There are just a few fighters that I feel a personal stake in their winning and Cory is one of them. I'm just a huge fan of his striking. I rarely think in this much detail about any fights or have stress when watching fights. After the event, I am hearing about what a great performance Cory did. I guess I get it, but the game plan worries me. In the Yan fight I saw Cory was trying to do lots of takedowns as well as in this fight. And he was largely unsuccessful. In this fight Song actually got him down and he had to fight on the ground with Song dominating for several moments. Eventually he got out. When I saw him doing the takedowns so much again, it made me really nervous because it is not his strength and it is a risk. Maybe he felt could handle Song's skill in wrestling and grappling. Maybe he thought the same with Yan. It seems like he is trying to challenge himself and get practice at the skills he has been working on in training- which is commendable - but also I think makes the fights closer than than need to be. I heard him saying in interviews that it was all part of the plan to give Song more things to have to think about.
Maybe this worked, but maybe this approach made the fight a lot closer than it needed to be - until he landed that huge elbow anyways. That changed the fight. But eventually, he could put himself into a position that he will not be able to fight out of. What if he does this with Aljo someday? What are the chances he is going to get put into a position he can't get out of with someone who is better than Song or Yan? It's a tradeoff because he is throwing so many different looks at his opponent that he is not playing to greatest strengths which are the movement and length and precision and spending too much time with unsuccessful takedown attempts and flying knees. I think there is a good idea behind the game plan. I just think the balance is off.
I hope he goes back to putting more emphasis in his striking. I like the volume and the feints, but I think the power could also be mixed in there a bit more often. Anyway as a fan that is rooting for him to get the belt, it would make me less nervous if he would get back to his long range in and out striking a bit more. That's my take on this. The game plan worked in this fight I think? Is it high fight IQ or bad fight IQ? I'm not sure. I think he is such a talented striker, but I think that's why the odds weren't as wide as they should have been. Because he does things like this. He has risky game plans that I'm not sure are smart. I could be wrong. Maybe if he didn't do all this wrestling and the fight was more striking oriented Song might have landed something big. I don't know. I just think when watching him him fight my stomach is in knots more than necessary.
BAD READS:
Cosce: I thought he might be able to get some offense going. The ITD prop wasn't good. I'm not sure what I was thinking.
Robertson: I think this is telling me that I am not good at reading grappling skill when watching tape. All week long I heard a lot of people talking about Robertson's grappling, but I didn't see it as significant. I also knew Agapova has a tendency to wilt and I saw her look very defenseless on the ground. So it was a bad read to think Agapova could make it close and have the fight GTD.
Nascimento: same thing I did not see the significant grappling advantage. Also, I did not know about the huge weight discrepancy. Also, for the 3rd week in a row I have a bad read on a heavyweight fight. I thought this would finish.
Sabatini: I didn't really see why Sabatini was such a huge favorite. I almost bet Jackson as an underdog. But at the last minute I went with the consensus favoring Sabatini in a last minute bet. One of my rules is to not let the consensus sway me.
LIVE BETS:
I was able to rebuild a few parlays as the night went on so I could make back some of my losses and make more than what I tracked. With live betting I was up +6.9 Units 31% ROI for the night.
HOW DID THE SYSTEM DO?
Ogden, Jackson, Nascimento and Rodrigues were underdogs who won. I red flagged on Zelhuber as a favorite to not bet against Ogden, but I did anyway. I should have red flagged Boser for a significant size disadvantage, but didn't. My gut was telling me to stay away from betting Sabatini as a favorite, but I did anyway. I went against the system and bet Rodrigues as the dog and came out ok on that. So there was a combination of error in judgement and just not following my own rules that cost me some losses.
If I had listened to the system, rooted out the close calls and gut feelings, I would have picked Sandhagen, Pyfer, Hernandez, Loma, Robertson, Basharat and Motta which would have been 7 out of 7 picks correct 100% correct.
What I actually did was pick Sandhagen, Rodrigues, Algeo, Pyfer, Boser, Hernandez, Sabatini, Cosce, Loma, Zellhuber, Basharat, van Camp. 6 out of 11 correct or 55% correct.
Once again I did not have the restraint to follow my own rules and would have done better if I did.
WINNING BETS:
Placed - Single - 0.1 UNITS
Andre Fili to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+700)Bill Algeo vs Andre Fili
Placed - 3 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-435)Bill Algeo vs Andre Fili
Over 1.5 (-525)Denise Gomes vs Loma Lookboonmee
Over 1.5 (-205)Javid Basharat vs Tony Gravely
Placed - 2 Team Parlay- 2 UNITS
No (-210)Nikolas Motta vs Cameron VanCamp
Yes (-260)Denise Gomes vs Loma Lookboonmee
Placed - Single - .5 UNITS
Gregory Rodrigues - By Ko, Tko Or Disqualification (+250)Chidi Njokuani vs Gregory Rodrigues
Placed - Single - 1 UNITS
Loma Lookboonmee - By Points (-121)Denise Gomes vs Loma Lookboonmee
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1 UNITS
Daniel Zellhuber (-360)Trey Ogden vs Daniel Zellhuber
Anthony Hernandez (-220)Anthony Hernandez vs Marc-Andre Barriault
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1 UNITS
Javid Basharat (-175)Javid Basharat vs Tony Gravely
Joseph Pyfer (-525)Joseph Pyfer vs Alen Amedovski
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
No (-220)Chidi Njokuani vs Gregory Rodrigues
Cory Sandhagen (-200)Cory Sandhagen vs Yadong Song
LOSING BETS:
Placed - Single - 0.1 UNITS
Bill Algeo to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+800)Bill Algeo vs Andre Fili
Placed - Single - 0.1 UNITS
Mariya Agapova to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+1200)Mariya Agapova vs Gillian Robertson
Placed -Single - 0.1 UNITS
Gillian Robertson to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+1400)Mariya Agapova vs Gillian Robertson
Placed - Single - 0.1 UNITS
Gregory Rodrigues in Round 3 (+1000)Chidi Njokuani vs Gregory Rodrigues
Placed - Single - 0.1 UNITS
Chidi Njokuani in Round 1 (+450)Chidi Njokuanivs Gregory Rodrigues
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-205)Anthony Hernandez vs Marc-Andre Barriault
Under 2.5 (-205)Tanner Boser vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1 UNITS
No (-190)Louis Cosce vs Trevin Giles
Over 1.5 (-425)Pat Sabatini vs Damon Jackson
Placed - 2 Team Parlay- 1 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-205)Javid Basharat vs Tony Gravely
Over 1.5 (-165)Mariya Agapova vs Gillian Robertson
Placed - Single - .5 UNITS
Cameron VanCamp (+145)Nikolas Motta vs Cameron VanCamp
Placed - Single - 1 UNITS
Bill Algeo (+100)Bill Algeo vs Andre Fili
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 1 UNITS
Daniel Zellhuber (-360)Trey Ogden vs Daniel Zellhuber
Anthony Hernandez (-220)Anthony Hernandez vs Marc-Andre Barriault
Placed - Single - 1 UNITS
Tanner Boser wins inside distance (+125)Tanner Boser vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Placed - Single - .5 UNITS
Louis Cosce wins inside distance (+350)Louis Cosce vs Trevin Giles
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