This event went so badly for me from the betting perspective. I am almost past feeling disappointed and just annoyed and curious about what went wrong here in terms of how I pick fights. I think I only got 6 out of 12 fight picks right even if I didn't bet on all of them. That may be an all-time worst for me since I started trying to pick fights a few months ago. I might have done better if I had just flipped a coin.
I went 2 - 11 on the bets and down 5.99 units. Anyways, here are the betting results:
Sean Brady -155 - 1 UNIT
Miesha Tate +100 - 1 UNIT
Qileng Aori +135 - 1 UNIT
Rafa Garcia -115 - 1 UNIT
Tucker Lutz -115 - 1 UNIT
Loma Lookboonmee 130 - 1 UNIT
Parlay (3 Legs) 114 --Taila Santos -400Moneyline(MU), Sean Soriano (Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Vrs Sean Soriano) -275, Luana Pinheiro (Sam Hughes Vrs Luana Pinheiro)-390 - 1 UNIT
Tate Round 4 +2000 1/3 UNIT
Tate Round 5 +2800 1/3 UNIT
Tate Round 3 +1600 1/3 UNIT
Loma Lookboonmee wins by decision or technical decision 210 - 1/2 UNIT
Parlay (2 Legs) 100 --Yes (Fight goes the distance -300 Taila Santos vs Joanne Calderwood, No (Fight does not go the distance) -200 Adrian Yanez vs Davey Grant - 1 UNIT
Parlay (9 Legs) +5602 --- Kyung Ho Kang-11, Sean Brady -165, Luana Pinheiro (Sam Hughes Vrs Luana Pinheiro)-390, Sean Soriano (Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Vrs Sean Soriano)-275, Taila Santos (Joanne Calderwood Vrs Taila Santos)-400, Miesha Tate (Miesha Tate Vrs Ketlen Vieira)-115, Adrian Yanez (Davey Grant Vrs Adrian Yanez)-280, Tucker Lutz (Tucker Lutz Vrs Pat Sabatini)-115, Rafa Garcia (Rafa Garcia Vrs Natan Levy)-115 - 1/10 UNIT
WHAT WENT WRONG:
Tate vs Vieira: Ok, why did I have so much faith in Tate that I would bet she would finish the fight? I saw how she looked in her last fight and saw her wins in the past. I saw Vieira not really looking too good in the fight footage I watched. Her striking looks not so good, but apparently it was good enough to beat Tate. So I think I underestimated the size and power advantage that she had and overestimated Tate's striking skills. Vieira's power and reach made it difficult for Tate to hurt her. Even if Vieira's striking doesn't look very fluid, it is powerful and when she landed on Tate it did damage while Tate's strikes did not do much to Vieira. In the wrestling and grappling it did not seem that Tate had the muscle to win.
Durden vs Qileng: I watched this fight last week and now maybe I am not remembering everything but my impression is basically, I overestimated the striking skills of Qileng, thinking it would be good enough to keep Durden at a distance and keep the fight standing. On the ground Qileng did not stack up well at all.
Sabatini vs Lutz: I can just copy and paste the comments above. What the heck. I thought Lutz's striking skills looked considerably better than Sabatini's. I thought it would be more effective. But all I can say is I was wrong about that. He was not able to keep the fight standing at all.
Loma vs Lupita: I was disappointed in Lupita's last fight because I thought she should have changed up her strategy when she wasn't able to get Luana to the ground. I overestimated how effective Loma's striking skills would be because she looked so good in her last fight. Maybe I should have looked more carefully at the size difference. Once again I overestimated the striker and underestimated the wrestler.
Nuerdanbieke vs Soriano: Can I just copy and paste once a again?
Yahya vs Kang: Once again, I saw Kang as the stronger striker and more well rounded. I thought if he could keep the fight standing, he'd be able to win a decision. Once again the superior grappling won out.
Yanez vs Grant: This one I didn't really get wrong, but I thought it would be close and not the shut out that it seemed like everyone thought it would be. I don't know. I thought Grant could have won that - even though if I rewatch it, yeah maybe everyone is right that Yanez won, but it was so close that it really could have gone either way. I have not rewatched it yet. It seemed very biased the way the commentators were talking about the fight. Grant was getting shots in and though Yanez did not look too fazed by it, he was getting hit and Grant was getting points. It was tit for tat a lot of the fight. Hit and get hit by both of them. Grant's fighting style and volume was able to neutralize the one punch KO power that Yanez gets so hyped over in his previous fights. Yanez is so hyped and yea he's good. His boxing technique looks nice, but he's getting hit. Why is he getting so hyped over a fight that he allowed to be so close that it really could have easily gone the other way. I don't see it. People dissing the judge for having it 30-27 Grant should rewatch the fight with the commentary off. It is not unreasonable. I just think the traditional martial arts fighters gets the short end of the stick a lot of the time and this was a a good example of it. It annoys me.
CONCLUSION: This whole night I overestimated the effectiveness of the striking skills in all the wrestler versus striker matchups. At what point is a striker's skills going to be effective against a pretty good wrestler. How do you determine that level?
Maybe I should add a few cells to my spreadsheet to rate how good the striking and wrestling skills are in comparison to each other? But how do I do that? Maybe use these fights a way to calibrate. So this level of striking skill is not enough against this level of wrestling skill. Or use the odds to help me determine if a fight is going to be close, give it to the better wrestler or just don't bet it. These fights were all close in terms of the odds. I knew they would be competitive so I should not have given so much confidence to the striking.
UPDATED RECORD:
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