I'm finally starting get some success in betting MMA. When I first started I was betting kind of emotionally and without much strategy. It was very bad. I've been figuring out some rules that I give myself and realized that having a spreadsheet where I rate the fighters against each other on various aspects of fighting helps me alot to decide which fighters are more likely to win and whether it is too risky to bet.
When the fight seems too close, the spreadsheet helps decide whether to bet the time props or not. It did well with that in the latest UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori where most fights felt too close to call, but the time props seemed to be easier to predict. If some of the time props odds were too high I put them into 2 leg parlays. I ended up placing so more more bets than usual on a card where originally was thinking I wouldn't place many at all. I wasn't sure if that was going to be a disaster, but it worked out well. Then again maybe I just got lucky that night.
COSTA VS VETTORI BETTING RESULTS:
The bets in green were good predictions from the spreadsheet. The gray bets are bets I placed going against what my spreadsheet was telling me. I have trouble following my own rules. The black bet was the only one where my spreadsheet gave the wrong prediction.
Marvin Vettori in Round 4 1400 - AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET BAD BET
Marvin Vettori in Round 5 1600 - AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET BAD BET
Marvin Vettori in Round 4, 5 or by Decision 125
Total (paulo Costa Vrs Marvin Vettori) Over 3.5 -115
No (Fight does not go the distance) -115 Jeff Molina vs Daniel Lacerda
Parlay (2 Picks) 120 ---Yes (Fight goes the distance)-175 Laureano Staropoli vs Jamie Pickett ---Yes (Fight goes the distance) -250 Livinha Souza vs Randa Markos
Parlay (3 Picks) 149 ---No (Fight does not go the distance)-300 Nick Negumereanu vs Ike Villanueva ---No (Fight does not go the distance)-300 Jai Herbert vs Khama Worthy ---Tabatha Ricci winner -250
Zviad Lazishvili winner-130 - AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET BAD BET
Jonathan Martinez winner -105 - SPREADSHEET PREDICTION WIN - TO HEDGE MY BAD BET ABOVE
Parlay (2 Picks) 132 --- Yes (Fight goes the distance) -135 Grant Dawson vs Ricky Glenn --- Yes (Fight goes the distance) -300 Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards
Seungwoo Choi wins by decision or technical decision -105 - SPREADSHEET PREDICTION LOSS
Gregory Rodrigues to win -125
Rodrigues By Ko, Tko Or Dq +600
Rodrigues By Submission+2000 - SPREADSHEET PREDICTION LOSS - spreadsheet predicted inside the distance, wasn't obvious if it would be KO or sub so I took a chance on this prop
Rodrigues By Decision Or Technical Decision 250 - AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET LOSS - I wasn't confident in spreadsheet predicting the finish so I bet this prop to hedge. I went a little overboard on Rodrigues but I had high confidence in him.
Parlay (2 Picks)133 --- Yes (Fight goes the distance)-150 Francisco Trinaldo vs Dwight Grant --- Tabatha Ricci to win-250
David Onama 325 - AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET BAD BET - I just had a feeling about him. He did really well. If his opponent had been anyone else he would've gotten the KO. But Mason seems to be indestructible. And Onama needs to work on TD defense.
Parlay (2 Picks) -110 ---No (Fight does not go the distance) -275 Mason Jones vs David Onama--- Yes (Fight goes the distance) -250 Livinha Souza vs Randa Markos - AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET BAD BET
Yes (Fight goes the distance) 110 Zviad Lazishvili vs Jonathan Martinez
THE RUNNING RECORD
I'm just trying to see how well the system is helping place better bets. Since I started using the system I've had a lot more success even with some difficult cards.
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