Ug. I had my best event at UFC 280 and now have lost all that I gained. Very bad night. -3.05 UNIT - 20% ROI. One of the few things I am proud of is that I cashed out of Puelles to win before the event.
What went wrong?
I am getting careless doing my red flags. When I get busy with other stuff, I am too rushed making the picks. I need think a little harder especially about volatile matchups like there were a lot of this past week of just avoid them if I don't have a strong read.
Actually my reads weren't that bad for most. Except that I initially picked Puelles over Hooker and then later cashed out of that bet. So glad I did. That was way off. And then I chose a couple underdogs which I hardly ever get right. And the one favorite that I picked that lost was Choi. But that was pretty close. But actually Trisano looked way better than I thought he would.
I need to go through a pruning phase and prune out about 30% of bets that I consider placing and only place the highest confidence ones.
Don't parlay volatile matchups. What was a I thinking?
WON:
Placed - 1.5 UNITS
Weili Zhang wins inside distance (-125)Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang
Placed - 0.5 UNITS
Erin Blanchfield wins inside distance (+195) Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann
Placed - 2 2 UNITS
Erin Blanchfield (-360) Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann
Chris Gutierrez (-230) Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez
Placed - 2 UNITS
No (-325) Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann
No (-175) Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles
LOST:
Placed - 0.5 UNITS
Michael Chandler (+185) Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler
Placed - 0.5 UNITS
Weili Zhang - By Ko, Tko Or Disqualification (+120) Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang
Placed - 0.5 UNITS
Carla Esparza - By Points (+500) Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang
Placed - 1 UNITS
Claudio Puelles (+135) Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles
Placed - 2 UNITS
No (-260) Ottman Azaitar vs Matt Frevola
No (-225) Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman
Placed - 0.5 UNITS
Silvana Gomez Juarez wins inside distance (+225) Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez
Placed - 0.5 UNITS
Silvana Gomez Juarez (-110) Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez
Placed - 2 UNITS
Seung Woo Choi (-175) Mike Trizano vs Seung Woo Choi
Andre Petroski (-200) Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman
Placed - 2 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-310) Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson
Over 1.5 (-285) Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez
Placed - 0.25 UNITS
Montel Jackson to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+1100) Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson
Placed - 0.25 UNITS
Julio Arce to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+800) Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson
Comments