+ 0.4 UNITS PROFIT 3% ROI Tracked
I managed to avoid a lot of landmines, but 1 was enough.
How did the system do?
Underdogs won in 6 out of 13 fights. I red flagged the favorite in only 2 of these fights. I red flagged Martinez and Cutelabra. Most of the other favorites that lost I did not bet because I saw them as close fights and didn't have confidence in picking the winner.
If I had followed the system while rooting out the fighters that I indicated were in "Close Fights" that were too hard to call, I would have picked Chimaev, Almeida, Collier, Dumont, Alateng and would have gotten 4 out of 5 correct. 80% correct
If I had blindly followed the system and picked all favorites that were not red flagged, I would have picked Ferguson, Chimaev, Rodrigues, Aldana, Dawodu, Almeida, Pickett, Collier, Alateng, Weeks. 7 out of 10 correct 70%
Since I didn't follow my own rules I picked Chimaev, Almeida, Collier, and Wolf. 2 out of 4 correct for 50%
For the second week in a row, I find if I follow the system but root out the fights that are too close to call, I'd do better picking the winners. I can't manage to follow my own rules week after week.
High confidence favorite that lost:
I did have a lot of confidence in Collier who was the favorite against Barnett unfortunately and lost me 5 units. It's the dreaded Category 5 bout - Heavy favorite loses scenario - the upset hardly anyone sees coming. For the second week in a row, I put too much faith in a heavy favorite low level heavyweight fight.
Underdog bet:
I took a chance on Danyelle Wolf even though it went against my rules. And it didn't pay off. Dumont dominated. Bad read.
I thought about taking a chance on Erosa as underdog but never bet it. I chose the wrong dog to bet on. I also chose the dog that I had red flagged. Why do I do things like this?
NEW RULE: If you're going to pick an underdog pick one with good odds, no red flags, and medium to high level.
Props:
Once again I did better in picking the time props.
WINNING BETS:
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-260)Hakeem Dawodu vs Julian Erosa
Jailton Almeida wins inside distance (-330)Anton Turkalj vs Jailton Almeida
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-175)Yohan Lainesse vs Darian Weeks
Over 1.5 (-350)Chad Anheliger vs Heili Alateng
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
Khamzat Chimaev wins inside distance (-200)Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland
Over 2.5 (-240)Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson
LOSING BETS:
Placed - 3 Team Parlay - 2 UNITS
Khamzat Chimaev wins inside distance (-200)Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland
Jake Collier (-450)Jake Collier vs Chris Barnett
Over 1.5 (-450)Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson
Placed - 2 Team Parlay - 3 UNITS
Over 2.5 (-285)Melissa Martinez vs Elise Reed
Jake Collier (-450)Jake Collier vs Chris Barnett
Placed - Single - 0.5 UNITS
Danyelle Wolf (+305)Norma Dumont vs Danyelle Wolf
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