Two of my favorite fighters fought last night and put in dominant performances. On a personal level, I am so happy. I am relatively new to watching fights and these guys are a big part of why I became so obsessed with martial arts. They are 2 guys who are at very different points in their careers. But they are my favorites for similar reasons. I love their style. They both put a high emphasis on technique and creativity and have the athleticism to back it up. They both have overcome adversity in their careers and come back to show why they are special.
Go Loma! Another step closer to undisputed. He showcased what makes him an all-time special fighter. Watching his fights is what made me start taking boxing lessons several years ago. Yes, his style looks unique and special. But something I really appreciate about him is how he does basic techniques that are taught in beginning boxing classes and does them so well and so fluidly that people don't even recognize it. It looks special when he does it. He takes the basics and makes it into art.
I thought it was funny how in the interview that they played during the event, he was saying that he was was like Voldemort from Harry Potter - "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named". Seriously, it seems everyone is talking about the lightweight division, calling each other out, and leaving Loma out of the discussion entirely. It seems like his loss to Lopez gives people the excuse to do that. But it doesn't make sense.
Go Sean! Another beautiful technical performance. Hit and don't get hit. I think he is an artist and will eventually prove all the haters wrong. Sean O'Malley inside the distance was one of the few bets that won for me last night.
RESULTS & REACTIONS
Having said all this, from a betting perspective, not happy about last night.
Lomachenko: I cannot seem to get it right when it comes to Lomachenko. With him being such a strong favorite I am forced to bet props and try to figure out the method or round or don't bet at all - which is probably the sensible thing to do. But since I watch his fights really closely, I feel I have a pretty good read on how he fights and what he wants to do. In the Nakatani fight I was off by 1 round. I bet the finish in round 10 and he finished in the 9th. I didn't account for him coming in more aggressive than he usually does and starting sooner because he wanted to show he can finish him sooner than Lopez did.
In this fight, I bet a variety of props centering around a round 7-8 finish. Then Loma drops him in the 7th and he looks very out of it. The ref could have stopped it and I don't think people would have been upset about it.
But what happened? Loma lets up and yells twice to Commey's corner that they should stop the fight. Why??? It was too soon. No corner would stop the fight that soon. How could I have predicted that would happen? I have not seen him have remorse about finishing a fight before. I haven't seen any boxer do that actually. Was he truly feeling sorry for Commey and not wanting to KO him? Or miscalculating how out of it Commey was and thought the finish was inevitable? Was it showboating? Then Commey to his credit shows he is really tough and comes back, boxes really well, defends himself well and shows he has the skills to survive 12 rounds with Loma. He was still looking fresh and punching hard in the 12th. Loma did not look happy when the decision was read. I think he wanted a finish too. Maybe my bets jinxed him. I have said it before but I probably should not bet my favorite fighters, because it takes away from my enjoyment of the fight. If not for the bets, I would have been perfectly happy seeing a dominant performance from Loma. I am not someone who necessarily wants to see finishes.
Nunes: If there is something I have learned about myself in betting fights it's that I don't have good discipline. My bets on Loma going wrong were kind of a flukey bad read. But my bets on Nunes broke several of my own betting rules. I even said this in my previous post.
Don't let 1 fighter's performance affect more than 2 bets.
There is no such thing as a lock.
In almost every event at least 1 heavy favorite will let you down.
Don't bet a fighter that you haven't researched yourself.
Don't blindly listen to the consensus opinion.
I put Nunes in a couple parlays because everyone said she was a lock. I did not research it. I have never even see her fight. Just heard over and over how she is the GOAT and she was untouchable. To be honest if I did have the chance to research her fights I might have still come to the conclusion that she would win. I'm not sure, but nevertheless.
My MMA bets were going so well. Almost all my picks through my research were right. I managed to avoid betting on the picks that I thought were iffier and only bet a small amount on the the props that I knew were risky. I had all the right ideas. I could have had a winning night if I had just had the discipline to follow at least 1 of the rules that I set for myself above. And on top of that since she was such a huge favorite, adding her to the parlays didn't even help with the odds that much. So dumb!
Afterwards I watched the Nunes fight on Youtube. Nunes did not look good in the second round. Is that how she normally fights? They were both just banging on each other with no defense or movement - just colliding with punches over and over. And Pena's punches were the ones that got through. This type of performance is what I put into the parlays? How can she be the GOAT if that is how she fights? Where was the defense, composure and fight IQ? Or was this just some bad flukey night for her? Also at the last minute I placed a few hail mary parlays. I only bet a tiny bit on them, but still, I could have won a couple of them if not for putting Nunes in there.
O'Malley: O'Malley came through. I have to admit I have been worried about his physical durability. But no problems last night. Then again he hardly got touched. And afterwards we hear that he had a really bad rib injury that almost caused him to cancel the fight. Good job Sean!
TIME PROPS: The time prop parlays are the ones that won this time when last month I couldn't get a single one right. MMA betting is so hard!
PREDICTIONS AND HOW THEY PLAYED OUT:
Loma vs Commey: Predicted Loma in Rounds 5-10. Result was Loma by Decision.
Oliveira vs Poirier: Predicted Oliveira by Decision. Result was Oliveira by Sub
Sean O'Malley vs Raulian Paiva: Predicted O Malley inside the distance. Result O'Malley by KO
Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt: Predicted Cody will win by KO. Result was Kara-France by KO
Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley: Predicted Probably it is a good idea to not bet this. But I'm guessing Costa by KO. Result Kelley by KO
Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright: Predicted It seems a lock that it will not go the distance. Silva by KO seems the safer pick. Result Silva by KO
Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz: Predicted I think Cruz is still fast enough to outpoint Munhoz. Cruz by Decision. Result: Cruz by Decision
BETS (Black is bad. Green is good.):
V. Lomachenko to win in rounds 7-9 +275 -1 UNIT
Vasyl Lomachenko Round 7-12 +135 -1 UNIT
Vasyl Lomachenko to win in rounds 5-6 + 550 -1/2 UNIT
Vasyl Lomachenko to win in rounds 7-8 +450 -1/2 UNIT
Vasyl Lomachenko to win in rounds 9-10 +450 -1/2 UNIT
Vasyl Lomachenko to win in rounds 11-12 +550 -1/2 UNIT
Parlay (3 Picks) +170 ---No -500 Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright, No -250 Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley, No -164 Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt -1 UNIT
Parlay (2 Picks) +113 ---Over 2.5 (-240) Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz, Over 1.5 (-200) Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier -1 UNIT
Parlay (2 Picks) +132 ---Charles Oliveira 110, Amanda Nunes -950 -1 UNIT
Parlay (3 Picks) + 104 ---Bruno Silva wins inside distance -225, Sean O'Malley -360, Amanda Nunes -950 -1 UNIT
Sean O'Malley wins inside distance +100 -1 UNIT
Charles Oliveira wins by 5 round decision +600 -1/2 UNIT
Jordan Wright by TKO/KO Stoppage Rnd 1 +900 -1/3 UNIT
Ryan Hall in Round 3 +900 -1/3 UNIT
UPDATED RECORD. Bad, bad bad.
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