RECAP:
I missed a lot of the fights last night and need to catch up on viewing. I saw Chris Barnett's wild spinning kick KO. Very unexpected and entertaining. I have a bias towards kung fu style fighters and love it when they can pull it off in MMA. Hawes was looking so good and sharp until in the blink of an eye he was not. I am happy for Curtis after hearing his story to get into the UFC. But it is a shame for Hawes because his striking looked beautiful while it lasted. I love watching that stuff. Gaetje looked great. For such a brawling style, he has good fight IQ and good defense and skills. I usually am not as into brawling style fights as much, but I like enjoy watching Gaetje implement his techniques and skills into his brawls.
My most anticipated fight of the night was Rose and Weili. It went mostly as I thought it would - so close. They wrestled and grappled more than I thought they would. I thought Weili would outmuscle Rose on the ground. But Rose was actually stronger than Weili on the ground. She was able to defend well and scramble her way out. In striking Rose had more accuracy and the sharper longer strikes. It was her longer reach and accuracy and those fast combos that gave her the edge in striking. But Weili had a lot of success landing hard fast leg kicks and getting multiple takedowns. Trevor and Rose's fight iq really sealed it, because going into the 5th it seemed really close. Trevor tells her that Weili wasn't doing much off her back. So Rose listens to her coach and implements like a machine. She almost immediately gets the TD at the beginning of the 5th and controls Weili for practically the whole round. Weili defended well but not enough to get out or offer any offense. Rose controls and lands some small shots taking less risk than going back to striking. It was the one fight where I really felt I had a good read on both fighters. But there were some changes. Weili really worked on her lateral movement. There was a noticeable difference and this time Rose was the one stalking and more stationery. I'm glad I did break my rules and bet Rose by decision. She is an artist and a technician. It was the one good pick I made last night and saved a bad betting night from being a really awful one.
UFC 268 BETTING RESULTS:
Ian Garry wins by KO, TKO or DQ -135 - GOOD PREDICTION
Parlay (3 Picks) 131 ---Ian Garry -400, Alex Pereira -250, Kamaru Usman -310
Yes (Fight completes 2 full rounds) -120 Nassourdine Imavov vs Edmen Shahbazyan - BAD CALL Missed this by 20 seconds
Parlay (2 Picks) 188 ---Yes (Fight goes the distance) 125 Chris Barnett vs Gian Villante, Phil Hawes -360 - BAD CALL on time prop and pick
Parlay (2 Picks) -115 --- Yes (Fight goes the distance) -300 Bobby Green vs Al Iaquinta, Alex Pereira -250 - BAD CALL on tme prop
Parlay (2 Picks) -124 ---No (Fight does not go the distance) -275 Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler, Kamaru Usman -310 - BAD CALL on time prop
Parlay (3 Picks) 195 --No (Fight does not go the distance) -185 Ode Osbourne vs CJ Vergara, Dustin Jacoby -360, Shane Burgos -200 - BAD CALL on time prop
Rose Namajunas wins by decision or technical decision 285 - GOOD PREDICTION but it was risky
Parlay (3 Picks) 163 ---No (Fight does not go the distance) -300 Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler, No (Fight does not go the distance) -225 Alex Pereira vs Andreas Michailidis, No (Fight does not go the distance) -275 Ian Garry vs Jordan Williams - BAD CALL on time prop
Parlay (2 Picks) 110 --- Shane Burgos -200Shane Burgos vs Billy Quarantillo, Alex Pereira -250
Parlay (2 Picks) -106 -- Phil Hawes -300, Justin Gaethje -220 - BAD PICK
CANELO VS PLANT BETTING RESULTS:
Fight ends Rounds 9-10 (+550) Saul Alvarez vs Caleb Plant - BAD DECISION
Fight ends Rounds 7-9 (+300) Saul Alvarez vs Caleb Plant - BAD DECISION
Fight ends Rounds 7-8 (+450) Saul Alvarez vs Caleb Plant - BAD DECISION
I have to go back and rewatch this fight. Canelo looked like he dominated every round from the first - even though in the 1st he hardly threw a punch at all. He backed Plant against the ropes and stalked him like a tiger the whole fight. Plant's punches were lacking authority and canelo was not worried at all and just kept walking forward without even throwing any punches. The first half he just pressured with very little volume. Plant was too hesitant and not giving Canelo anything to worry about. Around the 7th Canelo decides to start opening up and breaking Plant down further with more combos. In the 11th he decided to finish it.
It seemed to go according to plan with Canelo getting very little if any damage. I don't know why I thought he'd finish in the 8th or 9th - probably from previous fights. But really Canelo was in complete control and could have finished it anytime he wanted really probably anytime from the 7th round on. It was just their game plan to slowly wear him down with the pressure and then take over late. So really there was no good reason for me to bet the finishing round when it it just a decision that Canelo made in his head - having almost nothing to do with what Plant was doing in the ring. He is too good and makes it look so easy.
WHAT WENT WRONG
I have to be more disciplined about not betting the bets that I feel less confident on and following the rules I made for myself.
Maybe I will try rating the confidence level on each bet. For winning picks only bet if the confidence level is 7 or greater. For time props only bet if confidence level is 8 or greater. A rating of 5 is basically 50/50 and a rating of 10 is as confident as can be. I think that UFC event a few weeks ago where I got almost every time prop right must have been a fluke. Last night there were 14 fights and my spreadsheet prediction only got 7 time props right - even worse than last week. Maybe I should give up and just blindly follow other people's picks. I would have done much better this week.
If I had only bet the bets where I had a higher level of confidence, the only bet that I would've gotten wrong was Gaetje vs Chandler FDGTD. I was pretty confident on this one, but the rest I really didn't feel very good about but I bet them anyway.
And as far as picking the winners I am usually better than I was last night. I picked Hawes, Iaquinta, Edgar, Villante, and Shabazyan wrong. That is a lot wrong. Out of these I only bet Hawes to win, but I did have doubts about him after hearing other people saying that he wasn't reliable. One of my rules is to not bet on inconsistent or low level fighters so I didn't follow my own rules betting on these fights.
For the Canelo fight, I was also not disciplined because I was just basing it on my gut after watching a couple fights. I didn't put much thought into it and missed the winning round by 1 round. so dumb.
UPDATED BETTING RECORD:
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