A night of underdogs. Also, the theme of the night was veterans teaching the kids some lessons about fighting. A terrible betting night for me. I get too relaxed about the bets especially after a winning event the previous week. -9.36 UNITS -36% ROI. I feel not as bad because I was able to rebuild a parlay and lessen the blow so I'm only down 2.22 UNITS after all. But still, not happy with the betting.
Thinking out loud on MAKING BETTER BETS:
The red flag system favors betting Favorites so on a night like this at least I managed to avoid picking the favorite in 5 of 6 fights where the underdog won.
But I want to be able to know when to pick the underdog. I am terrible at picking underdogs. I am getting better at recognizing which fights the underdog has a better chance of winning so I avoid betting the favorite, but I don't have the confidence to actually pick the dog, because my track record picking underdogs is so bad.
LEVEL OF OPPOSITION I need to have a phase called "Level of Opposition phase" that forces me to compare advantages each fighter appears to have based on the tape versus the opponents possible skill at negating that perceived advantage. I should have recognized that Diakese's wrestling wasn't going to give him an advantage against Johnson. I think I should have thought more about Thompson's skill advantage and the fact that Holland looked faster and more skilled against lower level competition than Thompson had been going against.
Balance the Favorite Confidence with the Level of Opposition to decide if the underdogs is worth betting?
FAVORITE CONFIDENCE: These are the fights I did not feel confidence in the favorites: Ducote, Hermanson, Holtzman, Marshall, Daukus and Price. Decide if it is based on not feeling confident in the skill or is there some other reason. For Ducote, Daukus, Holtzman and Price I did not feel confident in the skill. But I also did not feel confident in the underdogs's skill. For Hermanson I thought he was skilled but felt that Dolidze was dangerous physically. I thought Guida is so tough and pretty well rounded. I thought he had good chance against Holtzman who I just didn't feel confidence in. I also thought Rowe had the potential to be dangerous physically. For Marshall I thought he was skilled but was stepping up in competition.
Based on this could I have confidently chosen any of the underdogs correctly? Maybe I should have picked the underdogs based on danger and physicality when not feeling confident in the favorite's skill. Rowe looked a lot bigger than Price and seemed faster and sharper. Anders more powerful and physical than Daukus even though in previous fights he looked kind of hesitant and unsure. Dolidze ended up winning, but for most of the fight he looked like he was going to lose a decision.
I don't know if I have any conclusions - something to work on in for the future.
What went wrong or what should I have done differently? What did I learn?
Holland: His striking isn't as good as I thought. He is super durable. He fights with his heart rather than his head. He cares more about gentleman agreements to make it a striking fight than about actually getting the win at all costs. He cares more about entertainment than winning. I had a bet on Holland Finish only so after the second round I knew it was doomed - that he wasn't going to last 5 rounds. I spent the rest of that fight wishing he'd clinch or attempt to wrestle and slow things down. But he just didn't. When he did, it looked really half-hearted. Was it the gentleman's agreement? Or was it his hand being compromised?
Thompson: He has looked low volume and too defensive in recent fights. Maybe he was caring too much about getting the title in those fights. In this fight he let it all go and we see that at almost 40 years old he still has the same skills and speed as ever. He fought smart but also went for it - which I guess is something he can't do against high level wrestlers. I have never seen someone spam head kicks so effectively in any fight. I was actually hoping he'd win by decision. I'm happy for him.
Ducote and Jarequi:
I placed these last minute prop bets on Jarequi by DEC and Ducote by DEC. Both are bets that I should have avoided. I didn't have a really strong conviction in Ducote. I was more betting her because I generally don't like the way Hill's technique looks in general and because of her age. But she has shown that her age doesn't seem to make a difference. This bet should not have made it out of the pruning phase. Jarequi I bet by decision mostly on the idea that this type of fight would most likely GTD. But I didn't feel like I had a good feel for either fighter here. It was kind fo a whim.
Diakese: Not enough thought about how good he looked in his recent fights against lower level competition. And not enough thought about Johnson's performances against higher level people. Diakese's wrestling showed to be not good enough for Johnson when it looked good against others. his striking looked terrible compared to Johnson's. But Johnson looked pretty bad in many of his recent fights. I do try to think about this, but this week I got kind of rushed and didn't give this enough thought.
Pavlovich: My reasoning that it would go into the second round was that I saw Tuivasa go into the 3rd with Gane. i saw that he could be technical and not just brawl. I also saw him survive exchanges with Lewis. This was just bad reasoning. I was feeling uneasy about it all day.
LOST:
Placed - 0.2 UNITS
Round 2 (+300)Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Pavlovich
Placed - 0.2 UNITS
Sergey Pavlovich in Round 2 (+500)Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Pavlovich
Placed - 0.2 UNITS
Tai Tuivasa in Round 2 (+750)Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Pavlovich
Placed - 1 UNITS
Yazmin Jauregui wins by decision or technical decision (-115)Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes
Placed - 1 UNITS
Emily Ducote wins by decision or technical decision (+120)Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
Placed - 0.2 UNITS
Emily Ducote to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+650)Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
Placed - 0.2 UNITS
Angela Hill to Win by Split or Majority Decision (+600)Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
Placed PARLAY - 3 UNITS
Yes (Fight completes 1 full round) (-350)Francis Marshall vs Marcelo Rojo
Marc Diakiese (-335)Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese
Placed PARLAY - 3 UNITS
No (-275)Natan Levy vs Genaro Valdez
Over 1.5 (-400)Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes
Placed - 1 UNITS
Stephen Thompson wins by 5 round decision (+350)Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
Placed - 4 UNITS
K. Holland (-210) FINISH ONLY Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
Placed PARLAY - 3 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-350)Rafael Dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena
Over 1.5 (-225)Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell
WON:
Placed PARLAY - 3 UNITS
Under 2.5 (-550)Tai Tuivasa vs Sergey Pavlovich
Over 2.5 (-435)Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
Over 1.5 (-275)Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
Placed PARLAY - 3 UNITS
Jonathan Pearce (-500)Darren Elkins vs Jonathan Pearce
Rafael Dos Anjos (-600)Rafael Dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena
Over 1.5 (-435)Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese
Placed PARLAY - 3 UNITS
Over 1.5 (-400)Clay Guida vs Scott Holtzman
Over 2.5 (-435)Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
Yes (Fight completes 1 full round) (-500)Jack Hermansson vs Roman Dolidze
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