I have fallen out of the loop on boxing, but Loma is my all time favorite fighter to watch so I have been geeking out on the interviews this week. I am so excited for this fight. I cannot wait. I have been watching his career ups and downs for years now. He gets a second chance to attain his goal of being undisputed.
I think Loma can do it. He is a decent underdog here so it makes me worried that everyone is right and Haney is just too big and too fast and too young. And I am too hopeful because I am too much of a fan and blinded by fandom.
Haney is an elite boxer, but Loma is more elite. He is the more skilled, well-rounded and talented fighter. What I question is if Loma's speed and reflexes have declined just enough to give Haney the edge in speed and allow him to outwork Loma. But Loma looks good in interviews and training footage. He looks confident and I don't see that he has declined physically much.
Everyone talks about how big Haney is but Loma has been fighting bigger fighters for years now. He always gets inside even in his more difficult recent fights. In the Lopez fight when he had an injured shoulder he managed win the later part of the fight and do more damage. It just wasn't enough. In the Ortiz fight he landed the clearer more damaging shots even though Ortiz's size, work rate and movement seemed to make things more difficult for him. Ortiz had more volume but didn't land clean very much. So it didn't look that great.
Is Haney better than Loma's other opponents? Probably? I don't know. He is really fast. He is smart. He clinches way too much. It's ridiculous how much he clinches. He doesn't have as much volume, movement or power than some of Loma's other opponents. Everyone says he has such a great jab. Which he does. It looks beautiful, but the jab is what creates openings for Loma to get in. I would think Loma can deal with a good jabber - unless the speed and reflexes aren't in his favor.
Will Loma show something new?
This fight is so good. What makes it so special is that this might be Loma's last shot at his goal of being undisputed. I wonder if he doesn't win if he will he retire. If he can't be undisputed what more is there for him to prove. It's almost like he has nothing to lose here. He may go out there with a different mindset than usual. He may start faster. Especially in the later rounds if the fight is close he might just go all out and be more aggressive for a finish than he usually is. I feel like in interviews he is more closemouthed than usual. I feel like he has something new that he will show in this fight.
Well these are the ramblings of a huge fan. I don't think I can be objective in this fight as a sports better. Watching Loma's fights is what got me into training boxing so everytime Loma fights I can't miss it. But this one is special. I understand the reasons that Haney is the favorite. But Loma is one of the special ones. If anyone can pull something off against the odds it's him. He's more skilled, but how much has he declined and how much better is Haney than other opponents? That is what will be answered in a few days.
My brain says this goes to decision. As a fan I think Loma has a great chance of pulling off the upset. Maybe Loma by Split? If there is a finish I think it will be Loma finishing Haney in rounds 10-12. I would not be surprised. Loma is a big step up in competition for Haney.
But if everyone is right and Loma's speed and physicality has declined a notch too much Haney could outpoint Loma.
OK, I HIT SUBMIT:
Lomachenko - By Decision Or Technical Decision +375 - .5 UNIT
Loma by KO +700 - .5 UNIT
Loma by ko in 10-12 +1600 - .5 UNIT
Loma to win +210 - 3 UNITS
Loma in round 10 +5000 - 1/20 UNIT
Loma in round 11 +5000 - 1/20 UNIT
Loma in round 12 +6600 - 1/20 UNIT
UPDATES on UFC:
I haven't had time to tape study the last few weeks. I didn't bet last weekend and only partially studied the Aljo v Cejudo event. But it was one of my best events +8.72 UNITS 73% ROI. Aljo by Split came through. I like split decision props. The previous weeks weren't great for pre-fight bets, but managed to eke out slightly positive nights.
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