MAIN EVENT: There were so many impressive performances tonight. It was a great way to end the night with Glover Texiera proving anything can be possible if you work for it. It's so inspiring and heartwarming.
CO-MAIN: The Yan vs Sandhagen fight was what I thought it would be. Exciting, technical, fast paced. I think this was Fight of the Night. It's one of those fights you can watch over and over. I'm feeling down that Cory didn't win. I put so much thought into analyzing it and trying to predict it. It was a hard one to predict. I knew it was going to be close, but I am trying to figure out where did my prediction go wrong?
I went back and read what my prediction was and realized that I said for Yan to win he would need to catch Cory with a unexpected shot and compromise him so he wouldn't be able to use his skills effectively. And I guess that's exactly what happened. So I wasn't wrong exactly. I just didn't think it would play out that way. I thought Cory would be able to see Yan's offense coming and be able to deal with it. That's where my prediction went astray. There was a turning point in round 3 when Yan caught Cory with a spinning backfist combo, knocked him down then controlled him on the ground for a bit. It was the biggest exchange of the fight. It was a really cool move. Very kung fu. Does Yan do this type of thing a lot? I was too anxious for Cory at the time, but now I can appreciate it. It's actually very similar to stuff we do in kung fu forms. I call it tornado arms, but there is actually a correct Chinese name for it. Kung fu can be used in MMA if you use it right and you have to be fast at it. It's unexpected and catches people off guard. Landing this knockdown won Yan the fight.
Cory managed to get up. He did not act wobbled, but after that point the tide turned. In the 4th and 5th he was no longer as sharp and effective as he was in the first 2 rounds. He slowed down enough that Yan was able to be more successful in his offense and basically hit him more during the 4th and 5th. With his movement slowed, Yan was was able to take over. Cory was still peppering Yan with shots, but he didn't seem to be punctuating them with hard shots anymore. And he could not evade Yan's punches as well as he was doing in the beginning of the fight.
Both of them were really impressive tonight. But if there is something Cory could have improved on in this fight it might be his composure or fight IQ. When things started to not go his way he seemed to not have a solid game plan or maybe not thinking on the feet fast enough. Of course this is really hard. But if there was something that could have improved the outcome for him, knowing he was slowed, he might have done more countering instead of just moving back with his hands down because that's when Yan was landing the biggest shots. He could have used more front kicks to deter him from blitzing in so often. Actually, I feel like Cory could have used more kicks in the fight in general to keep Yan out of range. He boxed with him too much which allows him into range to land his strikes and it's Yan's specialty. But at Cory's kick range, Yan would have had a much farther distance to travel. I kept wishing he'd punctuate his punch combos with a hard kick to the body or front kick to push him back out. Or do more leg kicks. Or he could've concentrated more on catching Yan when he was blitzing in. In the 5th it seemed like he kept looking for that one opening to land the jumping knee KO and in the process let Yan into range to out strike him. I wish he wouldn't have tried the flying knee or takedown so often. At times those didn't seem like the right move. But of course it's easy for me to say as a spectator. He was compromised in the 4th after the knockdown so maybe physically he just couldn't manage it. But if that had been his game plan, it might have given him a better chance after the knockdown.
Yan really knows what he is doing. He is so composed and efficient. Even when he is getting outlanded and taken down, he stays defensive and sticks with his game pan until his opponent starts breaking down. He adjusts to what his opponent is doing. He's like a machine. Yan kept the same pace and stayed sharp and became more aggressive landing the cleaner strikes in the later rounds.
Why do I care so much about this fight in particular and why did I want Cory to win? It is the fight styles. They are both elite level at their style of fighting. I love Cory's style of fighting. I like the mentality of "Hitting and not getting hit." I like movement and creativity. I don't care as much for the style of the machine that can take punishment and then outlast opponents. I know it's effective and it works if you are built like a machine. But I like it when skills win fights. Of course power and durability are necessary and the machine in this case is also very skilled, but when it is the deciding factor in a fight, it's just not my personal preference.
BETTING OUTCOMES: I did not do well tonight on a night when almost all the favorites won. Since there were so many heavy favorites, I ended making several time prop bets and lost almost all of them. So frustrating. On top of that I made some undisciplined bets that I knew were not the smart move, but did it anyway. UG. I'm wondering if I should make it a rule to not bet on fights where my favorite fighters are fighting. There are certain fighters that I really want to win and it makes me bet emotionally. I know people were saying Sandhagen was a good value bet. So I don't know maybe that wasn't a bad bet, but according to my own rules, I should not have bet it because it was too close to call. But I did it anyway.
My spreadsheet system did a pretty poor job predicting the time props tonight. I can't expect it to be 100%, but it predicted only 8 out of 13. I did not bet on all of them. I only chose certain ones to bet on - the ones I felt most confident in. And almost all the ones I chose to bet on were the ones that the spreadsheet got wrong. :{ Why? What are the chances of that? What lesson can I learn from this? Should I limit the number of those bets. I did so well last week on the time props. Or was tonight just one of those fluke nights?
These are my betting results for the night:
RECORD: 5-11 PROFIT: -4.86 units ROI: -35%
Cory Sandhagen +190 -UNDISCIPLINED BET
Magomed Ankalaev wins inside distance -105 - BAD PREDICTION
No (Fight does not go the distance) -145 Alexander Volkov vs Marcin Tybura - BAD PREDICTION
Yes (Fight goes the distance) -120 Petr Yan vs Cory Sandhagen - GOOD PREDICTION
Over 2.5 Rounds -120 Jan Blachowicz vs Glover Teixeira - BAD PREDICTION
Yes (Fight goes the distance) -155 Shamil Gamzatov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk - BAD PREDICTION
Lerone Murphy wins by decision or technical decision +155 - BAD PREDICTION
Lerone Murphy vs Makwan Amirkhani Over 2.5 Rounds -125 - BAD PREDICTION
Parlay (3 Picks) +126 ---Elizeu Zaleski -240 ---Tagir Ulanbekov -400 ---Albert Duraev -360 - GOOD PREDICTION
Parlay (2 Picks) -120 ---Yes (Fight goes the distance) -170 Damir Ismagulov vs Magomed Mustafaev - CANCELLED ---- Islam Makhachev to win -650 - GOOD PREDICTION
Parlay (2 Picks) -129 --Alexander Volkov -300 ---Magomed Ankalaev -300 - GOOD PREDICTION
Under 1.5 Rounds +135 Magomed Ankalaev vs Volkan Oezdemir (1/2 unit) -UNDISCIPLINED BET
Round 2 finish +350 Alexander Volkov vs Marcin Tybura (1/2 unit)-UNDISCIPLINED BET
Cory Sandhagen to win by Majority Decision +1600 (1/2 unit)-UNDISCIPLINED BET
Cory Sandhagen wins by 5 round decision +345 (1/2 unit)-UNDISCIPLINED BET
Parlay (2 Picks) +112 ----Lerone Murphy -310 ----Zubaira Tukhugov -165 - GOOD PREDICTION
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