I cannot wait for UFC 280. I only buy a few PPVs each year and this will definitely be one of them. I am so excited for the 3 headlining fights.
So I am torn about the O'Malley fight. I have been a fan of this guy for a long time because of his fighting style. What first got me into taking martial arts classes was being a fan of kung fu movies when I was a kid. Some of my most enjoyable childhood memories was going to see kung fu movies with my parents. Anyways I have an affinity for the "kung fu" style so my favorite fighters tend to be the ones that favor flashiness and movement and somehow get it to work in "real" fights. Hit and not get hit.
The more I watch MMA and bet on it the more I appreciate how hard it is to be successful at this style of fighting. O'Malley has been this type of fighter especially in his earlier fights. They are so fun to watch. But I am torn because I am trying to be a more objective in betting and if being completely objective I would not pick him over Yan. But I am itching to take the chance.
THE BREAKDOWN: I think the closest fight to compare this match to would be Yan v Sandhagen. I was such a nerd about that fight. I could not stop thinking about it. And felt pretty disappointed when Cory lost. Yan showed that he can get into the distance even with very talented long volume strikers and hurt them. Also he is not strictly a stand there and walk down type fighter. The pivotal moment in that fight was when Yan hurt Cory with a spinning back fist. I don't think Cory fully recovered after that moment. The way Yan fought in this fight would lead you to think he would most likely beat O'Malley since they are both long volume strikers and Sandhagen has way more experience at the highest level.
But these are a few things O'Malley might bring that Cory didn't:
O'Malley kicks more and those kicks could help keep the distance better. Cory had a very boxing heavy game plan and was trying lots of takedowns. He wasn't really trying to keep distance.
O'Malley punches with more power and precision. I have noticed that Cory really peppers his shots. He's trying to occupy his opponent most of that time rather than hurt. His power shots are pretty few and far between. I don't think Yan respected Cory's power.
If O'Malley can keep the distance and mix in the power shots efficiently, use his movement and fight moving backwards when Yan tries to close the distance, It's not that unlikely that he can win. But this is a hard task for sure.
UNKNOWNS: BUT, Sean is unproven at this competition level. I'm not completely sure if it is just bad luck but the last few times he has tried to move up to a higher level in competition something goes wrong. His skill is there, but are they there at this level of competition? His cardio is there. But his durability hasn't been proven. The Chito and Munoz fights were chances for him to show durability and rise to a test, but it just didn't happen. He hasn't had any other fights that are close to this level of competition.
One thing I saw in the Munoz fight before it ended was that Sean was really waiting to counter and very defensive. I would have liked to see a little more offense. He needs to get the volume in before Yan does since Yan tends to start slow.
On the ground, I know he trains, but we haven't seen him compete much on the ground or show wrestling defense. He has a lot of unknowns in this whole area of fighting.
If I was Yan, I would be looking to test the wrestling and grappling. So O'Malley using a kick heavy game plan might help keep the distance or it might make him vulnerable to takedowns. Then again the length might be a problem for Yan to take him down. How good is Sean's TD defense? I don't know. Sean has a lot of things to prove in this fight.
SUMMARY: O'Malley could prove everyone wrong and use his length and skill to out strike Yan and win a decision or Yan could get inside and hurt O'Malley. O'Malley would then either rise to the occasion after getting hurt or he could crumble. This is the thing that I cannot decide on. I keep hearing everyone say that it's a win-win scenario for O'Malley - but not necessarily. It's not a matter of him winning or losing. But it's a matter of him showing that he can hang with the top level and put up a decent fight without crumbling. He hasn't shown this yet, but I'm rooting for him.
Yan could win by KO, injury or decision. Past history on both these guys tell us this fight could likely end in some kind of controversial DQ or injury. My prediction is dependent on how optimistic I am feeling about O'Malley's durability which hasn't been shown yet. Because I'm sure Yan will get in and hurt him at some point. I'm going to be optimistic and say Sean will make it a competitive fight. I think he will look good in the first round but towards the middle of the fight Yan will manage to land some of the bigger more damaging shots and win rounds. Since it's only 3 rounds it might be close. I think the most likely scenario is Yan will win by decision. But assuming Sean can show durability, it is not an easy pick.
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