Here's what I'm thinking so far. Haven't placed any bets yet. After a bad couple weeks, I'm trying to be more careful. I'm also going back to taking notes as I watch tape.
NOTES:
(These are casual, off the cuff impression from watching tape. A lot of times I know no background on the fighters and I may say inaccurate things.)
Lewis v Spivak: Lewis technically not that great but very big and powerful. Spivak big, better wrestling, better grappling, maybe better technique and striking. But it’s 5 rounds Derek just needs to get that 1 punch. When Lewis loses he gets KO'd. He seems to be tailing off in his career and sometimes seems uninspired and frustrated. I like Spivak's skills. I red flagged Lewis because I feel his path to victory is too narrow. Everyone knows what he wants to do and can game plan against it. But that doesn't mean he isn't dangerous and can't get the shot he needs.
Moroz versus Maia. Maia looks physically a lot stronger, very good wrestler. She kept Valentina down, dominated her for at least a round - haven't watched the rest the fight. Very strong. Striking not great - loopy strikes with short arms. Moroz very good technical boxing. She’s leaner and longer. Good technique, straight sharp strikes, well rounded, but physically definitely not as strong looking at Maia. I think if Maia can get her into position to control her, she can dominate decision. Maia has only lost to Valentina and Chookagian who are both very strong and big and technically good. Moroz has lost to Esparza and Angela Hill. Who are small people. Their wins look about equal. I don’t think Moroz superior technique is enough to overcome Maia’s physicality. Moroz ’s best win is Buena Silva who has power, is a decent striker, looks strong but is still more of a lean body type. Moroz can out strike Maia. But she doesn’t seem to have enough power to make Maia afraid of her. Maia can come forward. On Stat Diggers they say that Maia never tries to grapple even though she’s a good grappler. So that makes me hesitant. Otherwise I'd pick Maia.
Cutelabra versus Nzechukwu. Nzechukwu technique doesn’t look great. Very powerful and thudding when he does throw. Decent striking defense high guard and he stalks and pressures. It does not seem like he's a good wrestler or striker but his huge body and power makes him able to overpower smaller people. He has been finished by power though. In each fight he looks significantly better than in the last. You can tell he is working on his skills. His striking has improved a lot over the last several fights. Cutelabra very fast. But even though he gets his opponents hurt and on the defensive he somehow manages to lose the position. And gets finished himself. Especially with bigger people like Johnny Walker or Pereira - he got finished. The people that he wins against are Devin Clark who he dominated but did not finish. He likes to wrestle and grapple but he cannot control his opponents and sometimes he gets finished himself. he went to decision he went to draw with his Dustin Jacob. It's physicality and size versus technique. Which will win out? I lean to Nzechukwu.
Salikhov v Fialho Fialho has a lot of power, throws really fast and hard punches but he’s a stalker. he’s low volume he explodes. He’s looking for openings even if it means he’s getting hit over and over again. The wins seem to be with mid-level strikers. With Jake Matthews he was just getting hit in the head and hit. Matthew seems like more talented striker, more volume. Fialho seems to have trouble with bigger strikers who have reach on him like Matthew or Pereira. He is fighting Muslim Salikhov who is a really good - tricky striker with kung fu background he’s 10 years older than him 38. He still looks really good technique, fast but he’s knocked out by the leech and seems to get wobbled when hit. I just think Fialho is going to stalk him and eventually find an opening and finish him -even if it means he’s getting hit by Salikhov a lot beforehand . There’s a chance Salikhov will be too slick for Fialho to actually hit him hard enough to knock him out. So Salikhov could win by decision. But I think it just takes that one chance for Fialho o get in and hit salikhov really hard and compromise him, because it seems like he’s getting wobbled a lot. he got wobbled a lot by older trinaldo, got knocked out by the leech. He rarely knocks anyone out. So I think fialho being so aggressive and pressuring will eventaully wear down Salikhov. The guys on Stat Diggers hate Fialho but I don’t think he us that bad for a come forward pressure fighter. I don’t think Salikhov can handle the pressure from a younger guy who has that much knockout power. And I love those kung fu guys. So if Salkhov wins I will feel bad for not backing Kung fu. I think it may take at least into the second round for Fialho to find the openings, when Salikhov isn't as fresh, so I think over 1 round.
Vera v Brundage. Veira is a slick grappler, very strong. his striking and wrestling is getting better but if he goes against a better striker or a better wrestler has trouble. He has to pace himself and not spam takedowns or he gasses. So it’s like he only has a couple shots to get the fight to the ground. Brundage seems well rounded I’m not sure if his striking or wrestling is enough to keep veira on the feet. I think it is better than veira's. I think he is good enough to stuff takedowns and win a decision. Veira couldn’t get Chris Curtis down and lost decision but he looked great against stoltzfus. He outstruck him, paced himself, wrestled him down and then got a quick sub once he was hurt. It seems this has to be veira's game plan but if brundage forces him to wrestle a lot and is competitive with in striking, veira may gas after the 1st round. This fight got cancelled.
Jack Della Maddalena v Daniel Roberts. Della maddalena is especially strong well rounded striker with power. He seems like he will be at the top soon. Great boxing, volume, power, movement. Also good wrestling and grappling defense. He can win the wrestling a grappling exchanges with emeev and get the ko . Roberts is lanky wrestler grappler who lost to Emeev. In striking he throw lots of lots of feints. Looks fluid but doesn’t land much. He wants to grapple. doesn’t handle getting hit well. He can hit and ko in wild exchanges. But he got dominated by shorter 43 year old trinaldo. I think he’s getting ko’d by della maddelena.
Zhumagulov v Johnson: Zhalgas looks ok technique but doesn’t seem to have something he’s really good at. He gets out struck and out grappled. He wrestles but doesn't do enough damage so he could possibly shut down a striker. He seems to slow towards the end. Johnson looks like really slick striker. He’s longer. He might be faster. He defends wrestling and grappling decently but did lose decision Mokaev recently. Johnson’s length and edge in striking makes the difference. Johnson grappled well against Royval. I thought that fight was competitive and Royval is good. It could be a close messy fight if Zhalgas is able to control Johnson a lot in wrestling. But I think Johnson will be able to fight out of it. I tend to think it will GTD.
Johns v Morales: Morales and Johns seem to fight very similarly. They are both careful hesitant, defensive. But when they do find the opening they are able explode to get a KO. Morales is said to be a wrestler but he doesn’t seem ever try to do take downs it’s mostly just dancing around tit for tat striking until he sees an opening. Morales has lost to better competition. Morales when he does lose he tends to go to decision even with people who have very high power like Song or Chris Gutierrez. When Miles Johns loses he tends to get choked out or ground and pounded. Idon't have a good read on this fight. I feel like it could be close striking until one of them finds an opening. It could go to decision or end in KO. What is Morales like in grappling and wrestling? I'd need to see more tape. I never saw him wrestle.
Turcios v Natividad. I thought I liked her turcios because he’s one of those people who is constantly on the move, constantly attacking. But after re-watching some of his fights I realize that he’s not very skilled. he misses a lot. Once again listening to Stat Diggers podcast they said people say Natividad is so terrible. I don’t quite see it. He doesn’t seem that terrible to me. So he seems very low volume defensive I don’t think striking is his thing. I don’t know. I think turcios might win just because he’s more active and he seems very tough and squirmy and able to get out of trouble. I don’t think Natividad will be able to get him into trouble and hold him there. But neither one of them looks very good. I tend to think it will go into the latter half of the fight at least and maybe decision.
Olivera v Demopoulis: I don't like the looks of Olivera. She backs up too much. She has reach. Seems to have good striking technique. Has long straight strikes. Maybe I need to watch more tape, but she reminds me of Olive Oyl. Just doesn't seem to have enough power in her shots to win against a tougher seeming person like Demopoulis. TBH I had a hard time watching Demopoulis fights. I kept falling asleep. She seems to get hit flush in the face quite a lot. She is kind of low volume, but looks physically stronger and throws harder shots than Olivera. I'm not sure what she is really good at except that she looks strong. I saw her on DieHard MMA podcast and I liked her confidence and personality. It made me feel more confident in her abilities. I feel pretty confident this will go into the last half of the fight or GTD.
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