This was a difficult event for me to have confident picks. But I finally got through them all. I added new cells in the spreadsheet to input a level of confidence for the fight pick and the method or time prop prediction. (5=50/50 or very unconfident, 7= confident enough to bet the pick, 8= confident to bet the method)
Max Holloway va Yair Rodriguez
PREDICTION: Holloway talented striker, great movement, accuracy. Yair wild and flashy striker. Combos, kung fu style kicker, but doesn't set it up. Relies on his speed to land. Not good td defense. He is fun to watch. Holloway is so sniper-like and fast with his strikes. Yair seems to throw without too much thought behind it - without setup and doesn't have as good accuracy. I don't see him landing on Holloway with a lot of consistency. Holloway is too sharp for that. After holloway gets used to his movements he will probably be able to time him. I think Holloway by decision.
Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogério de Lima
PREDICTION: I don't know. Neither of them looks that great. Rothwell is bigger but slower and more lumbering. His punches look hard but slow. Marcos punches are faster. Marcos wrestles. The spreadsheet says Rothwell by decision.
Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson
PREDICTION: Spencer striking does not look good. She seems to be a good heavy wrestler. She has fought and lost to the top people. But against lower level she looks very dominant and finishes on the ground. She is really physically strong. She is able to go the distance and be competitive with Nunes and Cyborg. Leah seems inexperienced and has had long layoff. From looking at her social media, she looks in better shape now than in her most recent fight footage. But I think Spencer is way higher level. I think Spencer will finish inside the distance maybe in round 1.
Miguel Baeza vs Khaos Williams
Beaza looks like solid kickboxer, good td defense. In Ponzinibbio fight he looked really good in first half. He has solid leg kicks consistently. He kicks better than he punches. He seemed to slow and his striking defense got really bad after the 2nd round. He got more static not able to maintain his distance. Got overwhelmed by pressure. Has ko power. Khaos is counter puncher, low volume but when he throws he blitzes in to wrestle has very fast punch speed and volume when he does punch. Accuracy not great. I think he had trouble with Pereira's movement and height. Was more hesitant in that fight. I don't know what I'm missing. I hear people online favoring Baeza. But Khaos seems to punch faster and have better defense. I feel like Baeza gets overwhelmed by pressure or blitzing at times and just covers up and becomes very static. So I rewatched a couple of the fights. Ponzinibbio is higher level than people Khaos has fought. Ponzinibbio is really good. When Khaos blitzes in he may catch Baeza with something, but it is a bit reckless charging and he misses a lot, backs people up but doesn't necessarily hit target cleanly enough to dobig damage. The way he charges, Baeza could catch him with something too. Khaos doesn't pressure like Ponzinbio did. He comes forward in spurts and then stops. When Baeza lost to ponzinibbio it was because P applied constant pressure with the long jab and crowded Baeza. But Khaos doesn't seem to fight this way. Baeza may just pick Khaos apart from the distance. Khaos will try to counter, but his accuracy isn't great. Baeza could survive the blitzes and maybe catch Khaos coming in recklessly. This is hard to call because I could see either of them catching the other with hard shot and then finishing. But if that doesn't happen, Baeza would be the one who would rack up more points if it went to decision. I guess I am changing my original take. It seems slightly more likely that Baeza is good enough to not get caught by a counter and win by decision.
Yadong Song vs Julio Arce
PREDICTION: Song had very competitive fight with vera. They looked pretty similar. Hitting and getting hit. About the same medium speed strikes lots of volume. It's a little messy sometimes. Arce, explosive fast counterstriker, low volume, twitchy. I think Arce's speed and explosiveness will help him get points. Song doesn't put high priority on not getting hit. He might overwhelm Arce with volume and slow him down. Song's wins seem to look very close and not very decisive because of how much he gets hit. I think it will be close and go to decision. My spreadsheet is saying Arce, but Song might get it just because he throws more volume. I'm not confident on this one.
Thiago Moisés vs Joel Alvarez
PREDICTION: Moises gets subbed by Machachev. But it was a slow fight. He gave him a good fight though it was a domination. But machachev is so good he subbed hooker within a minute. Decent striking. Able to get decision with bobby green striker. Able to get some powerful shots in. Thiago more well rounded, better striker. His losses have been to really top level people. Alvarez hasn't fought many higher level people. Alvarez is grappler who is very busy working on submissions on the ground. He is one of those grapplers that can get to work quickly if they get a hold of one of your limbs. In striking he doesn't look great and doesn't seem confident in getting TD. They both fought and lost decisions to ismagulov. Moises did much better. Alvarez hardly did anything. Didn't even try to get TD. Moises opponent level a lot better. On the ground it will be interesting and competitive to see who grapples better. It seems like Alvarez really focuses on subs while moises likes to strike. If moises played it smart, he'd try to get as many points striking as possible and not give Alvarez a chance to get a sub. I'm picking Moises by decision.
Cynthia Calvillo vs Andrea Lee
PREDICTION: Cynthia striking looks hesitant against Andrade. Wimpy jab. Striking with other opponents looks competitive. decent. Her punches tend to be really short. Andrea lee striking looks a little better, but she does get hit a lot and gets into messy fights. She has a longer reach. I like her striking better than Cynthia. She looked good in her latest fight. I don't know I feel like lee looks better than Cynthia. Why is Cynthia favorite? Maybe I'm missing something. Is Cynthia a much better wrestler? From hearing online mma experts Cynthia has strong wrestling and grappling and Andrea has terrible TD defense so if Cynthia gets her on the ground it will be all over for her. I only watched the most recent fight footage and don't see this. It's just hard for me to pick Cynthia because her striking looks so bad. Andrea by decision. But I don't feel confident.
Sean Woodson vs Collin Anglin
PREDICTION: Woodson super skinny tall lanky, competent striker, hard to TD. Stikes are long but a little messy, not super fast. Throws a lot of combos. Anglin strong, fast, but striking defense has holes. He is shorter and stockier. Woodson is good at maintaining distance, feints and super long. Handles come forward pressure well. good cardio. Erosa was able to tire him out with constant pressure. Erosa didn't have as much of a size disadvantage as Anglin will. It looks like Woodson by decision.
Cortney Casey vs Liana Jojua
PREDICTION: Casey more well rounded, better overall, more varied attacks. Jojua seems to walk forward and throw the same punches. Her defense is not great. Casey by decision.
Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves
PREDICTION: D lanky athletic well rounded, striking pretty good, not very fluid. Alves, striking decent, fast, explosive, held his own against ismagulov. His technique is good a little low volume. He did make attempts at jumping knees that ended with him on the ground in bad position, but he's able to get out and stand up. He is physically very strong and athletic. Why is diakiese such a big favorite? Am I missing something? The spreadsheet says diakese. I think his style is more standard and measured but when dealing with someone who is faster than him he can look unbalanced. I feel like Alves has a good chance. I like how well he did against such a good striker as ismagulov. Diakiese is not as good as ismagulov and alves was able to look pretty good in that fight even though he lost. Diakiese lost to fiziev who is also very good striker, but did not look as good. Seemed to always be a step behind. I think Alves is faster and more fluid. I will pick alves by decision or possibly sub.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Da Un Jung
PREDICTION: I keep thinking about this fight because I feel like I should be able to come up with a reasonably confident prediction. N doesn't look great at striking or wrestling. But seems helpless in wrestling or grappling. Allows himself to be dominated. Defense is not great, allows opponent to hold him and control his arms. His guard is really loose and ineffective. Against marques he looks terrible for 2 rounds. was dominated in wrestling then comes out in 3rd and then just hits him with hard combos and marques can't do much except cover up, ref stops it. When he does decide to punch, his punches are really heavy and has good accuracy. Has KO power. Jung looks like a heavy wrestler. Lays on top and controls. Big guy. both decent strikers. N has more heavy punches, Jung faster punches. Jung chases, bad striking defense. not great accuracy. If jung is smart, he will wrestle a lot and control N because N is not good at it and less dangerous there. In that case Jung may win by decision. But N is so big, it may be difficult for Jung to control. But then again N does not seem to be very good at wrestling. If it is a standing fight N could eventually KO Jung. I think his power is more damaging. jung gets hit a lot. When I picture this fight happening, I think of N's thudding long fists breaking through Jung's guard when N gets into his stride. N seems inexperienced and unconfident in striking. But his accuracy is actually pretty good. He just seems a little too careful sometimes. I can't picture Jung hurting him even though Jung is pretty big too. The reach and the heavy fists and the durability of N is what sticks out in my mind. I don't think Jung is that great of a striker. He had a draw with Sam Alvey. His wins in general didn't look that great to me. Nzechukwu by KO.
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