I didn't have time to research all the fight this week. And I have been burnt out after so many losing events this month. But did research a few.
UFC FIght Night:
José Aldo vs Rob Font
PREDICTION: Aldo got kod by Yan, but was caught at end. Font got surprise subbed y monhoz. They both fought moraes. Font ko'd him. Aldo lost but it seemed like a bad decision. I don't think aldo would ko font. Maybe he could sub him. Font could catch aldo with a clean shot and ko him. If he can't catch him I think Aldo may outpoint him with counters. This one is hard to call. Who has more volume? Maybe Aldo. Aldo has had the tougher fights. Aldo got outcontrolled by volk but looked competitive in striking. Actually now maybe I am leaning Aldo by decision. Is it more likely Font can catch Aldo or Aldo outpoint Font? Yan caught Aldo. Could Aldo wrestle and control Font and take away his striking?
POST FIGHT: Font has more volume. Sharper longer strikes. Aldo gets hit a lot. Aldo less volume, but seems to have more power. Has caught Font several times with hard shots that knock him down. In 3rd Aldo start doing more leg kicks. Get TD and controls. Aldo really tired in 5th, but lands another really big shot. Dominates on the ground. He came very close to getting sub and several times looked like he could KO Font as well. But never quite got there. It was competitive but Aldo was clearly winning almost every round. Aldo by decision.
Rafael Fiziev vs Brad Riddell
PREDICTION: Riddell's punches look hard. He's striker. Good technique, not a whole lot of volume. Solid and strong looking. Looks pretty good t wrestling. Fiziev uses lots of movement, but kind of low volume and his reflexes seem not that great. He gets caught. He got KO by musafaevHe doesn't jab. He seemed flustered against bobby green's weird striking style. but he does explode and have KO power. Fiziev by decision I think.
POST FIGHT: Very competitive. Evenly matched. Striking style similar. Tense fight. Not a a whole lot of volume. They are both very careful with each other. I don't know who won first round. F got more kicks. R more punches. They both explode and counter at same time. In the 3rd Riddell seems to be landing more in their exchanges. Then Fiziev finishes it with wheel kick. Fiziev by KO.
Alex Morono vs Mickey Gall
PREDICTION: Morono's striking doesn't look very polished, but it is effective. He counters with quick sharp volume. He is really nimble and the second someone show signs of falling, he goes down to grapple. He doesn well against slower strikers even if the opponent's striking looks technically better. Gall has a big size and reach advantage physically he seems very strong and athletic. His striking looked pretty good in last fight but maybe because williams just isn't that good. He is a good grappler. That is where he looks the most confident. I think Morono woulld beat Gall in striking, but if Gall can somehow grab hold of Morono's neck and it goes to the ground, I think his size and strength could beat morono maybe. The spreadsheet says Morono by decision.
POST FIGHT: I didn't have time to watch this fight very closely, but from what I did see of it, Morono seemed to dominate in the striking department and Gall was not able to do much. I have to go back and watch it more carefully. Morono by decision.
Bryan Barberena vs Darian Weeks
PREDICTION: Is weeks good enough to hold up under constant pressurea nd durbaility and be able to last if he can't finish it. Is Barberena going to be able to endure Weeks' power when he gets hit? Barbarena is very hittable and Weeks seems to hit very hard. But Barbarena is very durable. How is Weeks' defense? I haven't seen him in fights where someone is pressuring him for a long period of time. How does he deal with that? I can't decide. Weeks by KO or barbarena by decision.
POST FIGHT: Competitive. Weeks is wrestling more than I thought. Very close. Both missing. Maybe barbarena a little ahead in strikes. Weeks got TD in 2nd. Weeks more time controlling against the fence. Barbarena getting lots of leg kicks landing. I think Barabrena may have won the 2nd. I think Barbarena is landing more in the 3rd. But weeks has had a few TD. 3rd is hit and get hit. They both looks a bit tired in the 3rd. Barbarena definitely getting more strikes in the 3rd. But then Weeks get a TD. It goes the distance. That was very close. I have no idea what the judges will decide. I think Barbarena, but then again Weeks got the TDs. Barbarena by Decision.
Devin Haney vs Joseph Diaz
PREDICTION: Haney looks really slick, clean, fast and explosive. His jab is so fast and straight and long. Diaz applies constanst pressure coming forward. He punches kind of messy. Throws lots of punches and just tries to stand in front of you. Hits and gets hit. I think Haney will pick him apart. Haney also has a huge size and skill advantage. I don't think Haney will finish him. He seems very durable and Haney can pick him apart from a distance. He won't want to engage on the inside. Haney by Decision
Montana Love vs Carlos Diaz
PREDICTION: Diaz comes forward aggressive in your face. Takes shots. He seems to slow in his fights. But he keeps coming forward and getting hit. His defense isn't great. But actually in his later fights he looks really good against lower level people. When he fought the higher level Zepeda, he was looking pretty good. Zepeda was looking kind of flustered trying to back peddle and keep the distance. But he was able to catch Diaz in the last round when Diaz started to slow and then he eventually finished him. Love looks slick but he is unproven and not shown to be on the same level as Zepeda. He likes to keep his distance. He has KO power and caught Ivan coming in. So did Zepeda. He might struggle with the constant pressure if he can't KO Diaz. It's a matter of, can he deal with the non stop pressure and not get tired out and overwhelmed or stuffed and keep his techniques going strong. I can't find much footage on him. I think Love by KO. I can't find any footage of Love under that kind of come forward pressure from a durable opponent. Love Ko Baranchyk in Round 7. Zepeda Ko'd Baranchyk in Round 5. Zepeda KO' Diaz in Round 5. So maybe Love KO Diaz in round 7-10?
Gervonta Davis vs Isaac Cruz
PREDICTION: Tank by KO. Haven't seen him fight someone who has that constant come forward style. Not sure if it will give him more opportunity to find the opening for the KO or make it more difficult for him. He KO'd Santa Cruz and Pedraza around the 6th. They are both tall lanky boxers. Gamboa who is stockier and maybe hits harder lasted til later. So not sure which round it will end. Will it be middle rounds or late rounds?
PRE FIGHT BETTING IDEAS:
PLACED BETS:
Rounds 5-6 (+550) Montana Love vs Carlos Diaz
Rounds 7-8 (+550) When will the Fight End? Montana Love vs Carlos Diaz
Rounds 9-10 (+700) When will the Fight End? Montana Love vs Carlos Diaz
Parlay (2 Picks) -150 Over 1.5 (-425) Brad Riddell vs Rafael Fiziev, Over 2.5 (-285) Rob Font vs Jose Aldo
Parlay (2 Picks) -112 D. Haney by Decision or Technical Decision-250, Over 2.5 (-285) Rob Font vs Jose Aldo
Over 10.5 Gervonta Davis vs Isaac Cruz Gonzalez +120 (live bet)
Over 9.5 Gervonta Davis vs Isaac Cruz Gonzalez -120 (live bet)
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