UFC 286 Results: This was a good night for me. +7.11 UNITS, 77% ROI
Somehow I managed to avoid many really bad reads and got a few underdogs right for once.
Justin Gaetje by Split Decision was a very satisfying win. I don't understand why people favored Fiziev so heavily. Yes, he's good, but it was big step up in level. And Gaetje is underestimated I guess. Over the years he has developed his game. TBH, everyone being so confident in Fiziev scared me off from betting Gaetje straight out. I thought there might be something I was missing. I thought it would be close, but really didn't see why Fiziev would blow Gaetje out of the water. So I did a small bet on the split decision props. I've been having decent results with those this past year. And I figured despite the violent nature of this fight, both guys seem very durable and not likely to get KO'd in a 3 round fight, so the GTD bet at +170 was pretty good as well.
Jai Herbert was almost there. If not for second foul and point taken he was looking really good. When the point was taken, I was hoping maybe the Split Decision prop would come through, but no. But anyway that was good read.
This is the second time within a year Jennifer Maia outclasses an up and comer and wins an underdog decision for me. I was kind of surprised she was the underdog with her better speed, boxing and power. She was probably my most confident bet this week actually.
Veronica Hardy came through too as a +325 underdog. Watching Veronica's previous fights I have to say it looks really bad. But what I did see is she has really good skills, movement and she's well rounded. Her previous fights seemed to go badly because of either cardio, size or physicality. I've been watching the Full Reptile Podcast and see her and Dan Hardy breaking down fights and techniques. They seem to have good fight IQ and put a lot of detailed thought into fighting. I usually don't put much stock in fighter interviews and stuff like that but in this case it had to do with the thought behind the breakdowns that made me think she would have known where she went wrong before and worked hard at fixing her weaknesses during her long layoff. And Miller looks really strong and tough, but no where near as skilled.
I went back and forth on the main event all week. I didn't follow my own rules because I am supposed to not bet when I do that, but at the last minute I went with Usman. Oh well. That was the one thing I regret from last week.
Thoughts on Sandhagen versus Vera:
I've been a huge fan of Cory Sandhagen for years since I love technical creative striking. And I have not always appreciated Vera's style. But I think this week I am leaning to pick against Cory for the 1st time.
In his last couple fights I feel like the power difference between him and his opponents was the factor. Song was actually outlanding him in terms of the damaging strikes. But of course Cory landed that elbow which caused the cut to win him the fight - which wasn't really "lucky". But if not for that cut bleeding so badly, I felt Song might have been winning in terms of damage. And Yan landed that big spinning backfist that knocked Cory down and he did not fight the same in the second part of the fight. I'm not a fan of the wrestling he has been doing in the last couple fights because he doesn't win points from it. I've seen him attempt a few too many flying knees which makes me question his game planning sometimes. And he is tending to stay close and engage too much and not use his length and movement enough. He doesn't throw with power often enough. I think these factors will give Vera a lot of chance to land some damage in the later rounds.
But every fight Cory does fight with a game plan. Maybe he will come up with something completely new. I just don't know if the game plan is enough to overcome the relentless power and durability Vera brings. The question mark is that Cory could use his length really well and never let Vera in to land the damage and win on volume while landing a few damaging strikes here and there. Vera's movement isn't very dynamic, but it is relentless. And I feel like he has more power than Yan or Song.
So whose game plan will come up ahead? I could see it going both ways. But I am leaning towards Vera. I do think it goes into the later rounds or to decision and I think the split decision is very good possibility. Can't wait for this fight.
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