So many interesting fights in the event. I'm always looking forward to the more "kung fu" style striking fights. Sean O' Malley and Randy Costa are both fighting. They are both so fun to watch.
Up until last week, I was researching and picking each fight in each event for a couple months straight. And I can't keep it up anymore. I am pretty burnt out on it and partly because the last month was pretty discouraging. I'm pretty sure I won't get to all these fights. So I'm starting with the ones that interest me the most and work my way through from there as much as I can.
Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
PREDICTION: I think Oliveira looks better than Poirier overall. O's striking looks very fluid and nice and he has KO power. Poirier's technique is kind of messy , but he hits hard and he's really durable. So he could catch Oliveira and KO him. He was able to catch Mcgregor in both fights even though McGregor is a really slick striker. He could TD Oliveira. Chandler took O down several times relatively easily. O looked like he was losing that fight but survived and then caught him in the next round. When Chandler blitzed in really aggressively with speed and power he caught O, but then the next round when O was ready for it, he was able to catch him coming in recklessly. I think that's how he KO'd Kevin lee as well. Poirier doesn't blitz in like that though. He tends to stand there and trade punches and eventually catches his opponent. O did not KO ferguson but used his wrestling to dominate him instead. Poirier's style is more similar to Tony's. They are both strikers that like to stand and trade punches. And they are both very durable. O may decide he has a better chance if he wrestles and grapples with Poirier rather than strike a lot with him. I am thinking it is more likely this fight will involve a lot of wrestling and will go to decision. Oliveira by Decision.
Sean O'Malley vs Raulian Paiva
PREDICTION: I love watching O'Malley's striking, but I worry about his durability. Paiva's striking looks messier and he gets hit a lot, but he is very tough and he keeps coming. His striking is pretty good but not as fluid and accurate as omalley. Don't think he has as much power, but he may have more volume than O'Malley. Paiva gets hit a lot and his defense isn't that good. But if the fight goes long, Sean could struggle. In the Moutinho fight, he did well with cardio after throwing so much, but Paiva is better than Moutinho and will give him more to deal with. I have not seen Sean in a fight where someone pressured him and put out a lot of offense or made him struggle. The vera fight did not go long enough and Vera had not really done much offense. O Malley got injured and really did not put up much of fight after the injury so it is hard to learn anything from that. But it makes me wonder about his toughness. I think the skill difference is wide enough that it will end inside the distance. O Malley inside the distance.
Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt
PREDICTION: kkf looks like a good striker. He has a lot of volume, moves a lot. But doesn't look like he has a lot of power. He doesn't seem to like to wrestle or grapple. Garbrandt looked really bad against Font. He seemed very hesitant to let his hands go. But when he did he still has the explosive speed and more power. He seems a lot more careful than in past fights. He still doesn't move his head much or cover up much but he does not rush forward recklessly as he did against TJ. Against Font maybe he struggled with the reach or the pressure or the movement. I'm not sure why he did not look like what I remembered he fights like. Maybe just getting older and becoming more careful? I don't think KKF is as physically imposing. And he doesn't look like he hits as hard as Font either. Also Garbrandt I think is the better wrestler. I think the power differential is too big. If Cody lets his hands go a little more, I think Cody will win by KO.
Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley
PREDICTION: Costa is such a fun fighter to watch. He goes all out with so much volume. He has KO power and I like his karate style of striking. He looks slick as along as his opponent is not pressuring him. In the Yanez fight he looked great for 1 round before Yanez started coming to life. Then in the second round he withered really quickly once Yanez started coming forward. I think it was partly low cardio and partly his durability isn't very high. Kelly also fights with a karate style. He looks like a solid striker. He is more measured and doesn't throw as much crazy volume. He also seems to be more well rounded. it seems like he can grapple well. I'm not sure if Costa can grapple. But Kelly doesn't have as much experience. He doesn't seem to have that in your face pressuring style that Yanez has. Costa may be able to pick him apart with volume and catch him with a good shot and get the KO. But if Kelly can last past the 1.5 mark, there is a good chance Kelly can take over and finish him. Probably it is a good idea to not bet this. But I'm guessing Costa by KO.
Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright
PREDICTION: Wright comes out fighting like a tasmanian devil. He overwhelms with speed and power and aggression. Most of his fights don't go past the 1st round. Silva is the more measured fighter. He almost looks lackadaisical. Takes things slow and thinks about what to do. They seem to be almost completely opposite each other in their fighting styles. They both have power. It's hard to see Wright finishing Silva. Silva looks so strong and durable. But how will Silva react to the speed and aggression of Wright? He doesn't seem to throw with much volume. Will he move and evade the blitz attacks? Will he be able to find an opening and catch Wright while he is blitzing in? The smarter more measured fighter seems to be the better pick. Silva is a pretty big favorite, but the speed differential makes me not confident. I think it evens the playing field. Maybe it is a good fight to bet a little on the dog because the odds seem off. It could go either way. It seems a lock that it will not go the distance. Silva by KO seems the safer pick.
Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz
PREDICTION: This is hard to pick. I feel like Cruz's unorthodox movements and feints could be difficult for Munhoz to deal with. Munhoz could catch Cruz while he is darting in and out and possibly KO him. But when Munhoz fought Edgar, Edgar was moving around a lot. It seemed like Munhoz had a difficult time chasing him around. Comparing Cruz's other recent opponents, Cejudo may be most similar in style to Munhoz. Cejudo was able to time him and KO him. But Cejudo is much faster and more explosive than Munhoz. So it seems like it will be somewhere in between these scenarios. Munhoz may be able to catch Cruz at times, but not as often as Cejudo did. Cruz's movement could give Munhuz a hard time, but Cruz doesn't seem to circle around as much as Edgar was in that fight. He is more offensive than Edgar and will engage more often. So it comes down to the speed and timing of both these guys. Where are they in relation to each other? I think Cruz is still fast enough to outpoint Munhoz. Cruz by Decision.
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