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Kung Fu Fan

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2: Picks and Predictions

Updated: Nov 4, 2021

Woah, I barely had the cardio to get through all this fight research this week. So many fights that are hard to pick. I am most looking forward to Rose vs Weili. They are both so good and technical. I like Weili, but rooting for Rose just cause I like her fighting style.



Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington

PREDICTION: When they fought before, it was competitive kickboxing. They have similar style and body type. But Usman was a little more effective all around. He has a very good straight long and fast jab that can knock people down. He has more accuracy. I think the accumulated damage wore down Covington. In more recent fights, Usman's striking looks even better. He's a little lighter on his feet. his punches are faster and more accurate. He might get hit less than before. They are both good wrestlers I think. They both wrestled with Woodley and won. It seems like Usman is focusing more on striking recently and getting the KOs. A few years ago most of his fights were going to decision. If Colby does more wrestling it could go to decision. The first time they fought they didn't wrestle at all but in Colby's more recent fight with Woodley, there was a lot of wrestling. So maybe he will decide to try wrestling with him. Maybe that would be the smart thing for Colby to do. I think I will look into their wrestling more this week so I might change this prediction. I pick Usman to win, but it's hard to decide the method.


 

Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang


PREDICTION: If Rose can keep her focus and not get into a bad position, I think she can win again. Rose is trickier and more creative. Her movement is unusual and keeps you guessing. Her strikes are difficult to read. Her footwork makes her very elusive. She has sniper-like precision and power. Weili's style is a more static muay thai style fighting. She's really good technically and fast and hits hard. It's interesting because Rose KO's Weili with a lead leg kick that really didn't look like there was a lot of power to it. But it was just so precise and had snap to it. Then compare that to Weili's war with Joanna where they each of them just beat on each other, landing over and over again through much of the fight. It got to be rock em sock em robots. And it goes to decision. Joanna couldn't KO Weili and Weili couldn't KO Joanna. But Rose was able to KO Joanna in their first fight. So she has done what they couldn't. Was Rose's first fight with Weili a fluke? Maybe the second fight won't go down like that again, but Rose does have the ability to beat her. The danger is that she can lose focus as she did in her loss to Andrade. And Weili has considerable strength advantage if the fight goes to the ground and Rose cannot stay in the dominant position. A clinch where Weili can throw her down and end up on top will be dangerous for her. She is a really sneaky grappler, but if she gets into a position where Weili can outmuscle her that will be bad. Weili will do better in this fight because I think she got a taste of how Rose can be deceptive and will be more prepared for that this time. In striking I think Rose can outstrike Weili. But Weili can outmuscle Rose so that would mean Rose needs to keep the distance and snipe from the outside and not allow Weili to get close and clinch with her. For the second week in a row, one of my favorite fighters is fighting. This is too close to call. But my pick would be Rose to win by decision this time.


 

Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler

PREDICTION: These guys are really evenly matched. I think chandler's striking looks more explosive and fast but he kind of blitzes in recklessly and he got caught and KO'd in striking exchanges. So his defense may not be that great. Gaetje's striking is getting sharper. He is more defensive now and is good at making people miss. But his technique still looks a bit loose in his recent fights. Watching Gaetje's fight with Khabib it was obvious that he doesn't jab. He looked really flustered in that fight not composed at all. He looked great against Ferguson though. He doesn't do straight strikes. Everything is looping. That seems bad when you're fighting someone who is trying to get close to you. And Chandler will probably want to get close and TD and wrestle. In striking, Gaetje's evasive skills and more patient approach may be an edge. But i think they might do a lot of wrestling. Who is the stronger wrestler? I kind of feel like it's Chandler. Gaetje doesn't seem to wrestle that much. Both of them have lost only to really top level people recently. I think Gaetje will eventually catch Chandler in a striking exchange even if Chandler dominates in wrestling. Chandler's losses have been by KO. Gaetje by KO is my guess. But I'm really not sure.



 

Frankie Edgar vs Marlon Vera

Frankie moves kind of tense and stiff. Always moving. Throws combos, doesn't extend shots. Mostly striking, some wrestling. Good accuracy. low volume at first but throw more later. likes to wrestle. He likes to just get points in striking. Marlon vera lots of front kicks, leg kicks. Long legs. Better at kicking than punching. Dominated by aldo. Omalley dominated until he injured his leg. Striking defense doesn't look great. good grappling. Frankie latest win by decision in striking with Munhoz. His losses have been to top level strikers. Marlon's wins seem to be due to his superior grappling ability. His losses have been to good strikers. Frankie looks slower. He is older. He seems to be a good striker. Marlon is not a great striker. but would Marlon be able to take him down and grapple? ls Frankie able to outstrike Marlon? Marlon's wins are much lower level than Frankie's wins or losses. Frankie just beat munhoz who is better than people Marlon has beat. Marlon's striking doesn't give me confidence in him. I think Frankie will beat Marlon by decision.


 

Shane Burgos vs Billy Quarantillo

billy's pace and activity might be difficult for shane. He is always busy attacking in striking or in grappling. Shane gets hit. His defense or reflexes aren't that fast compared to the higher level strikers. Billy lost to tucker who is a stocky strong and fast striker. Tucker landed a lot on him and was able to slow him down. Billy seems to rely on his pace and cardio to outlast or overwhelm. He never stops and is constantly on the attack. But if Shane is able to hit Billy with power and slow him down it would help. Shane's losses and wins are to higher level. He gets caught but it is tby really high level strikers. Billy's punches are a bit wild and telegrpahed. Neither one of them has great striking defense, but maybe Billy's punches are too telegraphed. I think Shane will be able to deal with Billy's striking attacks and slow him down. Shane by decision.

 

Andreas Michailidis vs Alex Pereira

I feel like this will be a dominant win for Pereira. He looks really good. His TD defense is seems like it would be good. He is lanky but solid and athleitc, I think it would be hard to take him down. He has ko power, explosive and super fast. But he is new to MMA. His other fights have been kickboxing. I guess he is known for having Ko'd Israel in kickboxing. Machailidis is a wrestler. Not great striking or footwork. He has low volume, edges forward then throws wild looping combinations. I guess he should have weakness in wrestling and grappling, but I feel like Perreira's striking skills are elite and will be enough here. Pereira by KO.


 

Al Iaquinta vs Bobby Green

Hard to pick. Don't know what to think. Iaquinta has better striking technique. Hasn't fought MMA in a while. Seems to do better when he wrestles. He seems to lose to strong strikers. Green has twitchy unexpected cadence, fast explosive strikes. Hands down. Footwork looks stiff and staccato. Green seems to lose more to strong wrestlers. Is Iaquinta's wrestling enough to give Green problem? Is Green's striking good? I don't care for his striking style. Definitely seems it will go the distance.

 

Phil Hawes vs Chris Curtis

hawes looks explosive and well rounded. Curtis looks low volume. His striking doesn't look ver strong. Punches are a little slow and he gets hit. Gets controlled in wrestling. I feel like Hawes will dominate.


 

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Nassourdine Imavov


Shabazyan, lanky well rounded, kind of medium overall. Doesn't stand out as good wrestler or striker. he gets dominated in wrestling 2 of his latest losses were to wrestling. Imavov loose and bouncy, kind of lackadaisical looking. Waits til opponent hurt, then attacks with more power. Lost to Hawes got dominated in wrestling. Beat heinsihc and williams They both look like similar style. They both lose in wrestling. They are low volume counterstrikers. Imavov looser looking. Shebazayan looks like he hits with more power. His strikes look stiffer and more explosive. Who is more effective as counter striker? shebazyan caught taveres when tavares coming in. Imavov beat williams by wrestling and gassing him out. I think Shebazyan wins are more difficult. I think Shebazyan by decision.


 

Jordan Williams vs Ian Garry

William kind of a reckless striker, gets out wrestled and grappled. He doesn't do well in grappling. He has speed and explosiveness but not necessarily accuracy. Gases out when wrestling. Garry looks really good to me. Well rounded. Good at wrestling and striking. good defense. Garry inside the distance probably KO.


 

Gian Villante vs Chris Barnett


Villante looks technically better. He seems more defensive, but his punches don't seem to land very precisely. He didn't do well against Olesicjek who has speed and volume. For such a big guy, barnett's strikes look more explosive and powerful. Barnett could catch Villante. If he explodes forward Villante may not be able to keep the pace. But he seems to not have as good cardio. Villante by decision?


 

Dustin Jacoby vs John Allan

Jacoby well rounded tall solid kickboxer. Td defense not great. Gets outwrestled, but defends. Allan looks like a solid kickboxer but not as good as Jacoby. Striking doesn't look very powerful. Not a strong grappler. Jacoby by decision


 

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Bruno Souza


Baghdasaryan fluid, explosive kickboxer. Souza nimble kickboxer, explosive shots, decent grappling. I actually like the way souza looks. Baghdasaryan seems to slow down a lot and look winded after 1 round. Souza looks quicker but no power. He has good cardio though. Not good at grappling. They both have explosive strikes. If souza can survive the first round, Baghdasaryan could gas and slow down. Maybe Bagh? But not betting.


 

C.J. Vergara vs Ode Osbourne

both strikers. ode, more twitchy and explosive, got caught by flying knee. CJ, durable, forward pressure, gets hit, but keeps coming and outlasts. He doesn't look good at grappling. They are competitive. Hard to pick. Ode finshes early or CJ outlasts and finishes later

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