Most Excited for Sandhagen vs Yan
Disclaimer: Sorry in advance for mistakes, bad grammar or punctuation, these are casual notes and thinking out loud breakdowns. To help me figure things out I have a shorthand way of categorizing fight styles or attributes to help me remember. So, sorry if it sounds disrespectful or dismissive. It makes it faster and easier to make a pick. I don't know how all the fight pickers and podcasters who I have been listening to obsessively these past months can remember all the fights. I can study someone's fights for and hour and the next day I do not remember what they are about. The shorthand descriptions help to jog my memory.
I have not watched fighting very extensively so my takes are based on the most recent footage that I can find and what I see them doing in the footage. I don't know the background of most fighters so my take on them could be incomplete or wrong. These notes are very casual and just me talking myself through figuring out who I think will win, how and why.
Jan Błachowicz vs Glover Teixeira
PREDICTION: jan is more movement, active guard, counterpunching, well rounded striker. He is good or he would not have been able to be competitive with israel. He got caught and ko by santos who is someone that texeira out wrestled and finished. He outwrestled adesanya maybe because his size advantage. i don't think he can do that to Glover. Texeira is hyper strong, very good wrestler, pounder, slowly moves forward all the time until he can pound. Very durable. He lost to decision to corey anderson who is a wrestler who is light on his feet. Jan KO'd corey anderson while he was walking in. i don't know. I think jan is favorite, because he seems more talented technically, but texiera is so durable and strong. he has power and is good grappler. the spreadsheet says not to bet a winner and that it will go the distance. But I think it will be glover by decision.
Petr Yan vs Cory Sandhagen
UPDATE 2: EVEN MORE LAST MINTUE THOUGHTS HERE.
UPDATE: I've posted an updated breakdown here: https://fightingOTB.wixsite.com/site/post/petr-yan-vs-cory-sandhagen-updated-breakdown
PREDICTION: Cory has reach and size, volume, movement, accuracy. Good TD defense. good at fighting out of bad grappling positions. I think Yan would be able to out control him in wrestling, but in striking cory will pick him apart. But then again Yan has good striking defense. But he stays still and covers up rather than using footwork. Can he do that for the whole fight and take the shots even if they are blocked? TJ had hard time getting Cory down. I think Yan will too. Cory outlanded TJ who is more elusive and better striker than Yan. I see Yan missing a lot with his punches even with shorter less talented strikers than Cory. Cory by decision. stat digger pick yan because of his grappling advantage. also yan is favorite maybe because cory lost to sterling and yan was beating sterling. but I think cory had a bad day. It was a fluke. i think he'd beat sterling next time. striking stats are similar, but I think in striking it will go similar to cory v TJ which Cory also lost, but really it was a robbery. Corys' stats reflect his fight with TJ who is better than yan's opponents. Also yan hasn't fought anyone with as much a height difference or someone who has movement like Cory I think. And I think the stats reflect that Cory lost to TJ, but really he didn't. His mistake was allowing TJ to push him against the cage too much. I think he wasn't urgent about it because that is not supposed to score points. I think that's why the odds have yan a relatively heavy favorite. Turns out everyone thinks Yan will win but say it will be close. I don't know. Now I am secondguessing. Yan is kind of a straightforward static muay thai style fighter. not a lot of lateral movement. He is constant edging forward in pressure. When he gets close he can trip and out wrestle cory, but if cory has his mentality sharp after learning what happened in TJ fight I think he will be not so willing to go against the cage or wrestle. I don't know if yan has grappled with someone of Cory's height. That seems like it will be more difficult. Sterling got Cory down but Sterling looks physically stronger and bigger. Is that true or it just seems true from looking at them? And Cory was not at his best that fight. I still pick Cory even though all the pickers are picking Yan. Maybe I am too much a cory fan and not seeing things clearly. My final prediction is that it will be competitive, but Cory will win clearly by decision.
Islam Makhachev vs Dan Hooker
PREDICTION: hooker competent striker, confident accurate, gets TD, well rounded, solid. Makhachev, well rounded, very calm and fast grappler, twitchy, fast striker. Precise. He is faster than hooker and higher volume. Better footwork, more nimble. He looks extremely good. in striking I think Makhachev is faster and will outland him or overwhelm him. Hooker seems to like things at his pace. On the ground, Makhachev seems more nimble and fluid. Makhachev inside the distance.
Alexander Volkov vs Marcin Tybura
PREDICTION: tybura looks strong, but not very good at striking. he wrestles and gets to ground and pretty busy and fast grappler. On the feet he can get picked apart and overwhelmed. Volkov is a counterstriker who waits not much volume but when he strikes he lands and has ko power. i think he will not be afraid of tybura's striking and be more aggressive than he was with gane. Volkov doesn't show good td defense against blaydes. got dominated on ground. He's not good on the ground. got ko by derrick lewis and outpointed by gane. I think his striking advantage and accuracy will catch Tybura who looks clumsy in striking. I think Volkov by KO.
Jingliang Li vs Khamzat Chimaev
PREDICTION: jinliang looks good, but chimaev looks really good. Ling jiang had hard time with lanky strong fighter neil magny. Looked like came close to getting finished by him. Chimaev has a reach and size advantage. Chimaev more fluid, has power, good td and wrestling. Jing liang has all those things but chimaev just a bit better all around. wow he has finished everyone. only thing is his level of opponent is not high. has he fought a fast twitch striker before? Jingliang went the distance with neil who has beat high level people. had hard time getting him down but managed couple times, but neil gets up right away. Jing Liang able to fight out of bad grappling positions. the spreadsheet says chimaev by finish, but I'm not sure if it will finish, jingliang is higher level than any of the guys he has finished and has gone to decision with good grapplers. None of those guys really gave chimaev a hard time at all. Also, I am hearing that Chimaev had COVID really badly. It could make a difference in his performance. Will Jing Liang be able to go the distance?
Magomed Ankalaev vs Volkan Oezdemir
PREDICTION: A is decent but kind slow and messy and not very exciting. O doesn't look too good from what I have seen. He has power and strength. If he happens to land a good shot maybe if A gets careless. He stalks without much movement or defense. he has fought higher level people. I don't understand. Am I missing something? Ankeleev will KO Oezdemir. Actually A looks better in other fights. With busy striker he went the distance with krylov. with cutelaba it was 1st round ko and with dalcha ko power and wrestler 3rd round KO. Anakaleev seems to change his fighting speed and tactic depending on opponent. with krylov who was a volume striker it went the distance. with ion who is a coiled up come forward striker he patiently waited for the timing and got 1st round ko in counter in both fights. With Dalcha, he wrestled and it went to the 3rd then he caught him when dalcha was coiled up and stalking him. O is a stalker also but not as dynamic as dalcha or Ion. Ankalaev is actually pretty good striker. good timing, good power. I think it will be a 1st round KO.
Amanda Ribas vs Virna Jandiroba
PREDICTION: stat diggers seem confident in vinha, but I think ribas is considerably better striker. She's good at defense and mixing it up. Fast. active. Vinha and ribas both lost to people who are considered good strikers. Ribas is a good striker but lost to rodriguez who is better. But she was competitive with Rodriguez. She was landing a lot, but then she got caught. Ribas beat dern very clearly, vinha went to decision and lost to dern. Dern was not able to get much time grappling with Ribas. Vinha looks like she'd be really strong wrestler because of her size, but she gets controlled by smaller people. I don't see her outmuscling people so much in her fights. Dern's striking was enough to keep her at bay. Or maybe she didn't want to grapple with dern. she seems like a very good grappler very busy trying for sub off ground, while ribas more of a wrestler who controls rather than working for sub. Ribas seems like a really strong wrestler and striker whereas vinha's skill seems to be more as a grappler. her striking is decent but messy and I think ribas is good enough to beat her at striking and good enough wrestler to out control. It is close though. the spreadsheet says Ribas by decision. But I don't feel really confident because Vinha looks so tough and if they grapple she has a good chance of getting submission. It's a question of is ribas's striking good enough to keep the fight standing if she wants to. And will she be able to get TD on vinha. They are both pretty well rounded.
Zubaira Tukhugov vs Ricardo Ramos
PREDICTION: zubaira pointstriker, seems good, but not very exciting to watch, seems to get tired in 3rd, backpeddles and think he will win on points. Bouncy light on his feet, fluid technique. Looks for openings and snipes. Has ko power. Ramos not very good looking. low volume, stiff mover. Actually he looks better and more bouncy and fluid in other fights. ok now I see it. he is a grappler, not great at striking but good nimble grappler. tukhogov by decision, but he did KO aguilar. When he catches and gets the other guy wobbled he does go in very viciously. I feel like Ramos will give him lot of opportunity to find ko opening. His striking defense doesn't look great. It could be ko but my spreadsheet says it will be a decision.
Albert Duraev vs Roman Kopylov
PREDICTION: kopylov can throw some fast combos. And he can KO. He has fast movement, but duraev physically stronger looking and well rounded. Good wrestler. Not much volume tho. Kopylov doesn't seem good at wrestling or grappling. Duraev by decision is what the spreadsheet says but kopylov physicality looks like duraev can finish him if he gets a dominant position.
Elizeu Zaleski vs Benoit Saint-Denis
PREDICTION: elizeu very solid and well rounded. Good striker. Active guard. Punches a little telegraphed and wild at times. Solid wrestler. Got ko by ling jiang, caught when coming in. not much footage on st denis, but from what I see he really want to take down. that is his specialty. His striking looks decent. good td defense. He does get lots of subs. elizeu by decision
Michał Oleksiejczuk vs Shamil Gamzatov
PREDICTION: O is more fluid and better technique. I think a little more volume. TD defense not great. S seems a bit stiff. He is a wrestler grappler. Looks very physically strong. Gamzatov edges it, but don't bet. Go the distance
Makwan Amirkhani vs Lerone Murphy
PREDICTION: Makwan likes to throw and take down, lanky skinny guy, low volume strikes, waits for openings to shoot in. not great at striking. murphy good striker well rounded, good grappling defense. Lerone by decision
Damir Ismagulov vs Magomed Mustafaev
PREDICTION: damir decent striking, not very fluid, seems to be pretty good at wrestling and grappling. pace seems kind of slow. higher volum. Gets points. He plays it safe. Magomed good striking, low volume - not looking so good in 2020, slower reaction getting hit and outwrestled by riddell. but maybe riddell is just really good. in 2019 he showed solid explosive strike, more power. good wrestling and grappling. Looks very physically strong. Damir has better record. magomed not active, long layoff and comes back to a loss in 2020. damir is strong favorite. he may be more skilled striker - crisper and faster, but not powerful. physically does not look like he can match M. in wrestling. If M is aggressive at wrestling and walks through D's punches he can win. But don't know if he will do that. It goes the distance.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Allan Nascimento
PREDICTION: this looks like it will be tagir dominating. Am I missing something? Tagir looks really good in striking and in wrestling. He has volume, footwork, crisp strikes, long limbs for grappling. He has good timing and snipes the openings. nascimento looks a bit ploddy. His punches don’t have conviction. Though he looks like a heavier thicker person. He went the distance with Paiva who is considerably smaller. He got out grappled by him and out struck. It was close but, his size did not help him in the fight. tagir by decision
Comentarios