EVEN MORE LAST MINTUE THOUGHTS HERE.
UPDATED NOTES: Wow, I keep going back and forth about this fight. It will be so good. I've been listening to other people's takes and I went in and rescored these guys trying really hard to be truly objective. I don't follow Yan so not as familiar with him. So maybe I should have given him a few more points and I probably gave Cory too many points because I have a bias for his style and I've been following him for so long.
I know his strong mentality from listening to his interviews. I know he actively thinks what went wrong in each of his fights and how to improve. Yan, I don't follow, but from what I see he seems scary and has strong mentally as well. I am really surprised most people think Yan will win easily. I think it has to do with Cory lost to TJ. But really he won that fight. He outstruck TJ by a lot and TJ didn't take him down much if I remember. He spent a lot of time against the cage without getting TD. And TJ is good wrestler. It was a competitive fight but I didn't think it was that close really. It was bad judging. And Cory lost to Sterling who Yan really looked like he was beating before the DQ. So this is where if it was almost any other fighter, I would say Yan was beating Sterling and Cory was beaten very easily by Sterling. So I pick Yan. But since I follow Cory, I know he was not at his best in the Sterling fight. And he learned and improved from that. As I'm sure he got some lessons for some of his mistakes in the TJ fight as well.
One thing no one talks about is that Cory is significantly taller than most people Yan has fought, right? Doesn't that make a difference in how difficult it will be for Yan to take him down? And it's not like Cory is defenseless in that area. It comes down to that. Will Yan's special skill in clinching and wrestling be high enough to over come Cory's special skill in striking, boxing, his movement and size and reach advantage.
After rescoring, I still pick Cory to win, but with the favorite being Yan, it pushes the scoring to be exactly even. So basically the spreadsheet is telling me to not bet this fight. But too late! I already placed a bet on Cory. The spreadsheet also tells me that this fight will go to decision. But I am losing confidence in that as well. What to do? My rules are telling me to not bet this fight at all and just enjoy watching it.
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