I keep going over this fight. One of my rules is to not let myself get swayed by the consensus opinion too much. With most people picking Yan, I re-watched his fights with Sterling and Aldo last night. I still don't see why he is such a strong favorite against Cory.
Yes he's very good. But the fights are more competitive than I thought after watching them again. I see that both guys have some weaknesses. Yan is low volume and pretty static. He was getting knocked around by Aldo's leg kicks and just taking them. He seems to rely more on his own toughness than his actual skills to beat his opponents. And Cory has shown some mistakes in judgement particularly in the TJ fight - BUT even with those mistakes I still think he won that fight possibly 4 rounds to 1. It wasn't as close as people keep saying.
Cory demonstrates in his fight against sterling that TD defense is something to work on. But I think he got caught in a bad position in that fight and just flubbed and couldn't get out of it. It doesn't tell the whole story about his TD defense. I've seen Cory fight out of bad grappling positions before. I still think the height difference will make a big difference in Yan being able to control Cory in wrestling or grappling. Does Yan grapple? He did not seem to want to grapple with Sterling. He'd trip him but never went down to the ground with him. In Yan's fights, I was expecting to see him going in and taking his opponents down as a strong part of his game plan since I keep hearing people talk about his TD skills. But it doesn't seem to be his primary game plan. He wants to strike primarily.
In striking both Aldo and Sterling were outstriking him for the first 2-3 rounds, but it seems in both fights they each got tired around the 4th - either because of cardio or maybe just accumulated damage that slowed them down. That was when Yan was able to start taking over. I don't see that happening with Cory if he has a good game plan. Cory is durable and slows a little maybe as the fight goes on but not a whole lot. You can see this in the war with TJ. He will not fold in the later rounds unless caught by something unexpected.
The TJ fight is most similar to how I see the fight going even though TJ and Yan are different. TJ is a more challenging striker to deal with than Yan. Is Yan a better wrestler or grappler than TJ? Does he have the strong wrestling background TJ has? TJ took him down a little but got his knee injured doing so. I don't know. I don't think so.
Skillwise Cory's striking will beat Yan's. He will pick Yan apart. The reach will be a problem for Yan. The volume and accuracy will be a problem. The movement may be a problem. Yan stands still and then blitzes in once in awhile or he waits until his opponent is tired to become more aggressive. I don't see him reaching Cory with all the distance he needs to cover and Cory is really good at fighting moving backwards. Both Sterling and Aldo are more standing there in striking range - not moving as much. Sterling's striking is a bit awkward - not as fluid as Cory. He got his legs caught and that is what caused him to get taken down. And actually I think Sterling wanted to go down to the ground with Yan maybe. Did he want Yan to go down to the ground and grapple because he is confident in his grappling?
For Yan to win I think he needs to catch Cory with a good shot that debilitates him which will be Cory getting caught unexpectedly. But Cory is durable. Yan will not be dominating Cory in striking. He may decide to hone in on Cory's weakness which might be the TD or grappling. I'm not sure how this would play out actually. But this is Yan's best chance to win.
It's always a question whether a fighter will be at their best or make a mistake. One thing that does make me worry about Cory is I see Cory make mistakes in judgement. But if Cory is at his best and has a good game plan, I believe he is more skilled overall. And he strikes me as a conscientious person who analyses his weaknesses and tries to fix them rather than overlook them.
My system says not to bet. But after re-watching Yan's fights last night I am tempted to bet Cory by decision which was my original take last week when I first started researching this.
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