My all-time favorite fighter, Lomachenko, is fighting again this weekend. I can't wait. I think it will be a dominant performance. I used my spreadsheet to make a prediction and it is weird to do this since I have been a fan of his for way longer than I have been trying to pick fights. So it is weird to try to rate his skills objectively with an excel spreadsheet. But here goes.
Vasyl Lomachenko vs Richard Commey
PREDICTION: Loma's main advantage is his speed and movement and fight IQ. He is able to figure out what works for a particular opponent and carry out the plan. Loma's downside is that physically he has been affected by injuries and physically he is smaller and his power is not great at this weight level. Hopefully he is at his best physically. Defensively I have noticed that he does not fight moving backwards which would help against aggressive fighters. He tends to either move out of the way, slip forward and strike or cover up and weather the storm. Commey is strong and sharp but he does not have the hand speed or footwork or volume of loma. He has holes in his defense as Lopez was able to capitalize on. I think for Commey to do well with Loma he needs to apply constant pressure and not give Loma space. But I don't think he usually fights like this. He tends to come forward aggressively in spurts. The other option is that he outboxes Loma, fixes the holes in his defense, and catches Loma clean with a KO, but I don't think he has the speed and reflexes to do this to Loma. Lopma went to decision with Lopez who is more explosive and fast than Commey while injured.
The fighters that loma went to decision recently with were pedraza and campbell who are both tall lanky and good boxers. Commey is more aggressive than they are and defensively not as good. But Loma had trouble dealing with Salido who was extremely aggressive with non stop pressure. He did eventually start to come on and take over the fight but it was too late. But that fight was a long time ago and I think he saw how things went in that fight and won't let that happen again. Commey does not seem as durable as Nakatani who Loma finished in round 9. Lopez went to decision with him. Loma has a chip on his shoulder about showing that he can be better than Lopez. Lopez KO'd Commey in Round 2. I don't think Loma can do this. But he will definitely want to get the finish. And he will probably turn up the aggression sooner than usual as he did in the Nakatani fight in order to get an earlier finish. I am guessing Loma by KO in rounds 5-10. My feeling is that it will be shorter rather than longer, but not very confident in that.
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