I got really frustrated at the end of 2021 and took a break from predicting fights. But I'm trying it again. After putting in so much time analyzing fights last year it seemed a waste of time. It wasn't necessarily that I was reading a lot of the fights wrong, but there are lots of flukey things that happen. Or maybe I was getting too emotional and basing decisions on how much I like a certain fighter. Sometimes it seemed I would have had better luck just blindly picking. Now I'm scrapping my old spreadsheet analysis system and trying something new. The last few weeks I've been trying out a new system. I call it the "Red Flag System". It's less focused on detailed skill analysis with more emphasis on strength, physicality, and red flagging disadvantages.
OVERVIEW
I started noticing a pattern in the bets that win and lose for me. Each fight seems to fit into a certain category in terms favorites, dogs, how closely lined the fight is and higher skill versus lower skill. If I think of each fight in terms of which category it fits into it is easier for me to stay disciplined and not get too carried away with which fighter I like better. I watch fights and go by gut rather than detailed analysis like I used to try to do. I have an easier time figuring out which fights to avoid and which favorites are more likely to be upset. This is only for picking a winner - not for props.
Watch tape on fighters until you get a decent understanding. Don't bet a fight unless you watch tape. Never rely only on others' opinions or the general consensus.
Look at each fight, at the odds and research what handicappers are picking. Categorize each fight as best you can based on the situation, the skill level, etc.
Label each fighter with "red flags"
If the "red flags" balance out on both sides, the favorite is more likely to win. If the favorite has more red flags, it is a sign that the underdog is a good bet or it is a fight to avoid picking.
FIGHT CATEGORIES (roughly from most to least common)
1 Big favorite wins
When there is a big favorite and large majority cappers are picking them and the big favorite wins. If based on the favorite having good skill or strength it is more likely the favorite will win. This can also happen when nobody feels very confident in either fighter but chooses based on skills that are visible in the tape.
2 Dog has value
When there is a moderate favorite, a decent amount of cappers picking dog and the favorite still wins. Usually when both fighters are moderate skill level, have weaknesses or holes or are pretty evenly matched. When the odds for the favorite are too high and the dog has a path to win there is value. Note: When favorite stays the favorite even though cappers all seem to be picking the dog, it points to the favorite winning.
3 Volatile - Arguments either way - good skills
Bouts that are highly contested, moderate odds, arguments either way, involve inconsistent performances, volatile, unpredictable styles and the favorite still wins
4 Cappers split
Odds very close, pick em, cappers split on their picks, skill levels very even. Note: The favorite still tends to win even if the odds are very close.
5 Big upset 1-3 per event
Bouts where there is big favorite, everyone was picking the favorite and the favorite loses. The upset no one really saw coming even though it seems to happen 1-3 times in an event. It seems to happen less in higher level events like UFC, but still tends to happen at least once a week.
5B Slight upset, 1-3 per event
Bouts where odds are closer, moderate amount of cappers picked dog and the dog wins.
6 Cappers win - 1-2 per Event
Bouts where there was a pretty strong favorite and when decent amount of cappers were the picking dog and the dog wins. This is kind of rare not in every event. Sometimes the line can be flipped from where it started. It tends to happen more often in low level fights where less is known about the fighters.
RED FLAGS
Favorite's skill seems a bit overhyped
Newcomer moving up in competition level
Dog is established fighter with physical toughness and good skill
Older vs younger
Favorite looks too skinny versus a physically stronger looking fighter
Significant size or reach differential
Pronounced weakness in cardio, strength, durability, volume or fight IQ
How to make picks:
Usually you'd have to choose between a few different categories for each fight. If favorite has more flags than the dog, it is a good candidate for upset or at least an indication to not bet the favorite:
Between Fight 1 or 5, look at the flags to see how likely an upset is.
Between Fight 3 or 4 or 5B, maybe best to avoid if the flags aren't very strong
Between Fight 2 or 6, look at flags, if no strong red flags favorite more likely wins. Fight 6 tends to happen more in low level fights, more often female or heavyweight. Is there a talent or weakness that is being overlooked?
SIGNS YOU SHOULD AVOID A FIGHT
Both fighters low level or inconsistent
Too many red flags on both sides
When you have experience with a fighter and bad feeling, don’t be swayed by others' opinions even when they seem so confident
When you keep going back and forth and feel unconfident
Red flags balance each other out too much and you can't read it
One fighter has a flukey talent
Comments